Saint Josephs Hawks vs Penn result

HomeSaint Josephs Hawks4–0, 6th in Atlantic 10 AwayPenn1–3, 6th in Ivy League

83–77Final

68%32%

Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed

Saint Josephs Hawks to win

Prediction updated Sat, Nov 14, 11:18 PM UTC

Predicted score: 79–73
Margin: +6
Result: 83–77

Our lines

Point spread

−4.5Saint Josephs Hawks to cover · 60%

Total points

152.5Under · 50% · projected 152.2

Fair odds

1.46Saint Josephs Hawks · Penn 3.17

Who will win Saint Josephs Hawks vs Penn?

Our model makes Saint Josephs Hawks 68% favourites at home against Penn and projects a 79–73 final.

Saint Josephs Hawks have won 3 of their last 3, scoring 77.3 and allowing 70.0 points a game over that stretch. Penn have won 1 of their last 3, scoring 74.7 and allowing 86.0 points a game over that stretch.

Saint Josephs Hawks sit 6th in the Atlantic 10 at 3–0, while Penn sit 6th in the Ivy League at 1–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Saint Josephs Hawks rate +0.8 and Penn -1.4 points per game against an average side, a 2.2-point edge to Saint Josephs Hawks. Home court is worth about 12.4 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Saint Josephs Hawks at 61% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Saint Josephs Hawks -4.5 covers 60% of the time on our numbers, and the under 152.5 lands 50% against a projected 152.1 points.

Saint Josephs Hawks to win (68%). Projected score: 79–73.

Markets

Market	Selection	Model	Market	Final	Fair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)	Saint Josephs Hawks	86%	61%	68%	1.46
Winner (incl. overtime)	Penn	14%	39%	32%	3.17
Point spread	Saint Josephs Hawks -4.5	78%	48%	60%	1.67
Point spread	Penn +4.5	22%	52%	40%	2.50
Total points	Over 152.5	49%	50%	50%	2.01
Total points	Under 152.5	51%	50%	50%	1.99
1st half spread	Saint Josephs Hawks -3.5	49%	–	49%	2.06
1st half spread	Penn +3.5	51%	–	51%	1.95
1st half total points	Over 72.5	51%	–	51%	1.98
1st half total points	Under 72.5	49%	–	49%	2.02

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Saint Josephs HawksBefore tip-offPenn

3–0Season record1–2
2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
3–0Last 10 games1–2
W3Current streakL1
77.3Points per game74.7
70.0Points allowed per game86.0
+7.3Average margin−11.3
2 daysRest before this game2 days
1Games in the last 7 days2
+0.8Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.4
−0.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.5
+0.9DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.9
+12.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Saint Josephs Hawks	0.00.0–0.0	+8.036.7–28.7	0.00.0–0.0	−4.036.7–40.7
Penn	0.00.0–0.0	−10.329.7–40.0	0.00.0–0.0	−1.045.0–46.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

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