San Juan Knights vs Abra Weavers result

Abra Weavers are the model's pick to win on the road at 59%, with a projected score of 82–79 against San Juan Knights.

The table sets up a genuine top-of-the-North clash: Abra Weavers lead the North Division at 24–2, while San Juan Knights are right behind them in 2nd at 24–3. Recent form tilts further toward the visitors, who have won 5 of their last 5 while scoring 75.4 and allowing 66.6 points a game over that stretch. San Juan Knights have won 3 of their last 5, putting up 72.0 and conceding 72.2 in the same window, so their results have come without much separation on the scoreboard.

Adjusted efficiency explains why the model leans toward Abra Weavers despite San Juan Knights being at home. Abra Weavers rate +16 points per game against an average side, compared with +12.3 for San Juan Knights, a 3.8-point edge. Home court is worth about 0.9 points in this competition, which is not nearly enough to close that gap, so the venue softens the lean rather than flipping it.

The head-to-head record also favours the visitors, with Abra Weavers taking 2 of the 3 recent meetings and San Juan Knights 1. The latest finished Abra Weavers 76–65 San Juan Knights on 2026-11-09, a result that fits the efficiency gap between the sides. Still, a 59% win probability is close to a coin flip, and the model itself advises treating the lean with care given how little separates these teams.

The projected score of 82–79 reflects that narrow margin: Abra Weavers are favoured, but only by a possession or two. San Juan Knights have the better table position by a single loss and the home floor, so their case rests on turning a tight efficiency gap into a low-scoring, grinding game. The market's view of the winner is modest rather than emphatic, and the model's own numbers agree.

The projected 82–79 final puts Abra Weavers just clear of the -2.5 spread, with the model's line set at Abra Weavers -2.5. The projected total of 161.3 sits fractionally under the 161.5 total points line, leaving almost no cushion on either side. Both numbers are tight enough that the 59% win probability is the firmer part of the read, and the spread and total carry far less conviction.

Abra Weavers to win at 59%, with a projected score of 82–79.