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Cleveland State vs West Florida Argonauts result

HomeCleveland State2–2, 6th in Horizon LeagueAwayWest Florida Argonauts2–3, 4th in ASUN
69–67Final
63%37%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Cleveland State to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
79–74
Margin
+5
Result
69–67

Our lines

Point spread
−3.5Cleveland State to cover · 55%
Total points
150.5Over · 56% · projected 155.9
Fair odds
1.59Cleveland State · West Florida Argonauts 2.70

Who will win Cleveland State vs West Florida Argonauts?

The numbers side with Cleveland State (63%) at home against West Florida Argonauts, with 79–74 the most likely shape of the final score.

Cleveland State have won 1 of their last 3, scoring 77.3 and allowing 95.0 points a game over that stretch. West Florida Argonauts have won 2 of their last 4, scoring 98.8 and allowing 67.8 points a game over that stretch.

Cleveland State sit 9th in the Horizon League at 1–2, while West Florida Argonauts sit 2nd in the ASUN at 2–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Cleveland State rate -4 and West Florida Argonauts +0.9 points per game against an average side, a 5-point edge to West Florida Argonauts. Home court is worth about 13.4 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Cleveland State at 59% across 7 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Cleveland State -3.5 covers 55% of the time on our numbers, and the over 150.5 lands 56% against a projected 156 points.

Cleveland State to win (63%). Projected score: 79–74.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Cleveland State73%59%63%1.59
Winner (incl. overtime)West Florida Argonauts27%41%37%2.70
Point spreadCleveland State -3.564%49%55%1.82
Point spreadWest Florida Argonauts +3.536%51%45%2.22
Total pointsOver 150.564%50%56%1.80
Total pointsUnder 150.536%50%44%2.25
1st half spreadCleveland State -2.549%–49%2.05
1st half spreadWest Florida Argonauts +2.551%–51%1.96
1st half total pointsOver 72.551%–51%1.97
1st half total pointsUnder 72.549%–49%2.03

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Cleveland StateBefore tip-offWest Florida Argonauts
  • 1–2Season record2–2
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 1–2Last 10 games2–2
  • L1Current streakL1
  • 77.3Points per game98.8
  • 95.0Points allowed per game67.8
  • −17.7Average margin+31.0
  • 3 daysRest before this gameBack-to-back
  • 2Games in the last 7 days3
  • −4.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+0.9
  • −0.7AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.4
  • −3.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.5
  • +13.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Cleveland State0.00.0–0.0−12.734.0–46.70.00.0–0.0−5.043.3–48.3
West Florida Argonauts0.00.0–0.0+13.546.8–33.30.00.0–0.0+18.048.8–30.8

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Cleveland State

1–2

2–2, 6th in Horizon League

West Florida Argonauts

2–2

2–3, 4th in ASUN

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day