Basketora

Oakland vs Northern Iowa result

HomeOakland1–5, 10th in Horizon LeagueAwayNorthern Iowa2–3, 10th in Missouri Valley
80–76Final
59%41%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Oakland to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
81–78
Margin
+3
Result
80–76

Our lines

Point spread
−1.5Oakland to cover · 58%
Total points
157.5Over · 54% · projected 161.0
Fair odds
1.68Oakland · Northern Iowa 2.46

Who will win Oakland vs Northern Iowa?

Our model makes Oakland 59% favourites at home against Northern Iowa and projects a 81–78 final.

Oakland have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 69.0 and allowing 95.0 points a game over that stretch. Northern Iowa have won 2 of their last 4, scoring 87.5 and allowing 87.5 points a game over that stretch.

Oakland sit 12th in the Horizon League at 0–5, while Northern Iowa sit 9th in the Missouri Valley at 2–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Oakland rate -4.7 and Northern Iowa -1.1 points per game against an average side, a 3.6-point edge to Northern Iowa. Home court is worth about 12.6 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Oakland at 53% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Oakland -1.5 covers 58% of the time on our numbers, and the over 157.5 lands 54% against a projected 161.1 points.

Oakland to win (59%). Projected score: 81–78. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Oakland75%53%59%1.68
Winner (incl. overtime)Northern Iowa25%47%41%2.46
Point spreadOakland -1.571%50%58%1.71
Point spreadNorthern Iowa +1.529%50%42%2.41
Total pointsOver 157.559%50%54%1.87
Total pointsUnder 157.541%50%46%2.15
1st half spreadOakland -1.550%–50%1.99
1st half spreadNorthern Iowa +1.550%–50%2.01
1st half total pointsOver 75.551%–51%1.97
1st half total pointsUnder 75.549%–49%2.03

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

OaklandBefore tip-offNorthern Iowa
  • 0–5Season record2–2
  • 0–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 0–5Last 10 games2–2
  • L5Current streakL1
  • 69.0Points per game87.5
  • 95.0Points allowed per game87.5
  • −26.0Average margin0.0
  • 2 daysRest before this gameBack-to-back
  • 2Games in the last 7 days3
  • −4.7Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.1
  • −0.3AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+2.4
  • −4.4DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−3.5
  • +12.6Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Oakland0.00.0–0.0−12.833.4–46.20.00.0–0.0−13.235.6–48.8
Northern Iowa0.00.0–0.0−2.341.5–43.80.00.0–0.0+2.246.0–43.8

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Oakland

0–5

1–5, 10th in Horizon League

Northern Iowa

2–2

2–3, 10th in Missouri Valley

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day