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Minnesota vs Western Illinois prediction

HomeMinnesota4–0, 6th in Big TenAwayWestern Illinois1–3, 8th in Ohio Valley
Tip-off
93%7%
Win probability

Our pick

Strong
Minnesota to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
83–63
Margin
+20

Who will win Minnesota vs Western Illinois?

Minnesota is the pick to beat Western Illinois with a 93% probability, in a game projected to finish 83–63.

Minnesota enters this one on a perfect run, having taken all 4 of its last 4 games while scoring 78.8 and conceding just 58.5 per contest. Western Illinois has managed only 1 win in its last 4, putting up 74.5 points but giving back 73.3 over the same span. That gap between what each side scores and what it allows frames the matchup: Minnesota has been winning comfortably, Western Illinois has been trading points.

The records back that up. Minnesota is 4–0 and 6th in the Big Ten, while Western Illinois is 1–3 and 8th in the Ohio Valley. The efficiency numbers point the same way, with Minnesota at +4 and Western Illinois at -3.5 against an average side, a 7.5-point edge to Minnesota before home court is even counted.

Home court matters here, worth about 12.4 points in this competition, and it sits with Minnesota. That combination of form, table position and efficiency is why the model gives Western Illinois little room, and why the market's view of the winner is so one-sided. The most likely final score, 83–63, reflects a home side pulling away rather than a close game.

Minnesota to win at 93%, with a projected score of 83–63.

Tale of the tape

MinnesotaBefore tip-offWestern Illinois
  • 4–0Season record1–3
  • 3–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 4–0Last 10 games1–3
  • W4Current streakL1
  • 78.8Points per game74.5
  • 58.5Points allowed per game73.3
  • +20.3Average margin+1.2
  • 3 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • +4.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−3.5
  • +0.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−1.9
  • +4.1DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.6
  • +12.0Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Minnesota0.00.0–0.0+13.539.3–25.80.00.0–0.0+6.739.5–32.8
Western Illinois0.00.0–0.0−0.332.0–32.30.00.0–0.0+1.542.5–41.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Minnesota

4–0

4–0, 6th in Big Ten

Western Illinois

1–3

1–3, 8th in Ohio Valley

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day