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Chiba vs NeoPhoenix prediction

HomeChiba0–0, 10th in Eastern ConferenceAwayNeoPhoenix0–0, 1st in Western Conference
Tip-off
36%64%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
NeoPhoenix to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
88–92
Margin
+4

Who will win Chiba vs NeoPhoenix?

NeoPhoenix are the pick to win at Chiba with a 64% probability, in a game projected to finish 92–88.

NeoPhoenix carry the stronger underlying profile into this one. Their adjusted efficiency of +3.1 points per game against an average side is 5.5 points better than Chiba's -2.4, a gap that home court, worth about 1.2 points in this competition, only partly closes. That is why the model makes NeoPhoenix a 64% favourite even on the road.

Recent form pulls in the other direction. Chiba have won all 5 of their last 5, averaging 96.4 points scored and 90.2 allowed across that run, while NeoPhoenix have taken 3 of their last 5 at 87.8 scored and 85.0 allowed. Chiba's scoring output is the clearest argument for the home side, though their defensive numbers over the same stretch are looser than NeoPhoenix's.

The table offers little separation at this stage: Chiba are 10th in the Eastern Conference at 0–0 and NeoPhoenix 1st in the Western Conference at 0–0. With both records level, the efficiency ratings and the head-to-head pricing carry more weight than standings, and both point the same way. The market's view of the winner is consistent with the model, putting NeoPhoenix ahead despite the trip.

The projected score of 92–88 reflects a close, high-scoring contest rather than a comfortable NeoPhoenix win. Chiba's recent scoring rate suggests they can keep pace, which is why the margin stays small even with the efficiency edge on the visiting side. The gap between the two teams is real but narrow enough that home court matters.

NeoPhoenix to win at 64%, with a projected score of 92–88.

Tale of the tape

ChibaBefore tip-offNeoPhoenix
  • 9–9Season record9–3
  • 4–6Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road9–3
  • 6–4Last 10 games7–3
  • W5Current streakW2
  • 92.2Points per game87.4
  • 95.1Points allowed per game81.6
  • −2.9Average margin+5.8
  • 1 dayRest before this game1 day
  • 3Games in the last 7 days2
  • 36.6Rebounds per game34.6
  • 20.6Assists per game21.8
  • 12.3Three-pointers made per game11.0
  • 56.2Bench points per game39.3
  • −2.4Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+3.1
  • +3.9AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.4
  • −6.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.8
  • +1.3Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 8 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Chiba+1.523.5–22.0−0.521.2–21.7−3.020.0–23.0−1.921.1–23.0
NeoPhoenix+3.224.1–20.9+1.321.9–20.6+0.921.5–20.6+0.220.3–20.1

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

B. RandolphChibaVST. DavisNeoPhoenix

Leading scorers · averages over the last 5 games

  • 22.4Points20.6
  • 4.4Rebounds7.6
  • 2.0Assists5.2
  • 3.6Three-pointers made3.4
  • 22.8Minutes31.2

Team leaders

ChibaThis seasonNeoPhoenix

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (8 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
B. RandolphVST. Davis
PTS
22.4·20.6
REB
4.4·7.6
AST
2.0·5.2
Starters
R. SegawaVSJ. Tubbergen
PTS
8.6·14.5
REB
2.6·5.0
AST
4.0·1.0
Starters
R. KanechikaVSK. Tsuya
PTS
6.8·9.6
REB
2.3·1.4
AST
2.5·0.4
Starters
N. WilliamsVSR. Sasaki
PTS
3.4·8.6
REB
2.8·1.8
AST
0.6·5.8
Cross-matchup
Matt CostelloVSJ. Harrellson
PTS
11.0·6.8
REB
7.7·9.4
AST
3.0·3.6

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Chiba

Likely starting five

  1. Matt Costello
    Center · Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    11.0
  2. B. Randolph
    Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    22.4
  3. R. Kanechika
    Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    6.8
  4. R. Segawa
    Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    8.6
  5. N. Williams
    Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    3.4
Missed the last game
Away
NeoPhoenix

Likely starting five

  1. T. Davis
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    20.6
  2. J. Harrellson
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    6.8
  3. R. Sasaki
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    8.6
  4. K. Tsuya
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    9.6
  5. J. Tubbergen
    Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    14.5
Missed the last game
Full lineups and benchChiba vs NeoPhoenix: player stats and box score
Photo credits (4)

Recent form

Chiba

5–0

0–0, 10th in Eastern Conference

NeoPhoenix

3–2

0–0, 1st in Western Conference

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day