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Karsiyaka vs Fenerbahce prediction

HomeKarsiyaka2–2, 10th in AwayFenerbahce2–2, 6th in
Tip-off
36%64%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Fenerbahce to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
81–84
Margin
+3

Who will win Karsiyaka vs Fenerbahce?

Fenerbahce are the pick to win on the road at Karsiyaka with a 64% probability, in a game projected to finish 84–81.

Fenerbahce carry a modest edge into this road game, and the model gives them a 64% chance of leaving Karsiyaka with the win. The projected score of 84–81 suggests a close, high-scoring contest rather than a comfortable margin. Karsiyaka's home-court advantage is a real factor, valued at about 3.3 points in this competition, which is why the gap between the sides stays narrow.

The form lines are nearly identical: both teams have won 2 of their last 4. Karsiyaka have scored 81.8 and allowed 78.8 points a game over that stretch, while Fenerbahce have put up 86.3 and conceded 87.3. That makes Fenerbahce the more potent offense but also the more porous defense in recent games, a combination that fits a tight, back-and-forth scoring night.

The table offers little separation, with Karsiyaka 10th at 2–2 and Fenerbahce 6th at 2–2. Adjusted efficiency tilts slightly toward the home side: Karsiyaka rate +1 and Fenerbahce -0.2 points per game against an average side, a 1.3-point edge to Karsiyaka. That edge, combined with home court, is the underdog's case for an upset, even though the overall numbers still favor the visitors.

The market is more decisive than the efficiency figures. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Fenerbahce are priced at 78% across 7 bookmakers, well above the model's 64%. That gap suggests the market sees the road side as the clearer winner, while the model keeps the door open for Karsiyaka given their efficiency edge and home-court value.

Fenerbahce to win (64%), with a projected score of 84–81.

Tale of the tape

KarsiyakaBefore tip-offFenerbahce
  • 2–2Season record2–2
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–1
  • 2–2Last 10 games2–2
  • W1Current streakL1
  • 81.8Points per game86.3
  • 78.8Points allowed per game87.3
  • +3.0Average margin−1.0
  • 8 daysRest before this game1 day
  • 0Games in the last 7 days2
  • 25.7Rebounds per game28.8
  • 19.7Assists per game19.0
  • 11.3Three-pointers made per game10.6
  • 23.0Bench points per game37.4
  • +1.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.3
  • −0.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.9
  • +1.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.2
  • +3.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Karsiyaka−0.517.5–18.0+2.322.8–20.5−0.519.3–19.80.019.0–19.0
Fenerbahce−2.519.0–21.5+3.225.0–21.8+1.321.3–20.0−3.021.0–24.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Ishmael El AminGuard · KarsiyakaVSShavon ShieldsForward · Fenerbahce

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 18.7Points17.0
  • 1.3Rebounds6.0
  • 2.0Assists1.3
  • 3.3Three-pointers made2.3
  • 30.3Minutes25.6

Team leaders

KarsiyakaThis seasonFenerbahce

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Guards
Ishmael El AminVSTalen Horton-Tucker
PTS
18.7·10.5
REB
1.3·3.5
AST
2.0·2.8
Guards
Briante WeberVSBraxton Key
PTS
9.7·7.3
REB
3.3·2.3
AST
5.7·1.8
Forwards
Rashard KellyVSShavon Shields
PTS
12.7·17.0
REB
3.3·6.0
AST
2.0·1.3
Centres
Steven EnochVSSertac Sanli
PTS
13.0·5.6
REB
6.0·2.8
AST
1.7·0.4
Cross-matchup
Y. GultekinVSTrent Forrest
PTS
12.3·4.3
REB
5.0·1.5
AST
2.3·2.3

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Karsiyaka

Likely starting five

  1. Rashard Kelly
    Forward · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    12.7
  2. Steven Enoch
    Center · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    13.0
  3. Y. Gultekin
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    12.3
  4. Briante Weber
    Guard · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    9.7
  5. Ishmael El Amin
    Guard · Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    18.7
Away
Fenerbahce

Likely starting five

  1. Talen Horton-Tucker
    Guard · Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    10.5
  2. Braxton Key
    Guard · Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    7.3
  3. Sertac Sanli
    Center · Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    5.6
  4. Shavon Shields
    Forward · Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    17.0
  5. Trent Forrest
    Guard · Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    4.3
Missed the last game
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (16)

Recent form

Karsiyaka

2–2

2–2, 10th in

Fenerbahce

2–2

2–2, 6th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day