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Melbourne United vs Sydney prediction

HomeMelbourne United3–5, 9th in AwaySydney5–2, 2nd in
Tip-off
47%53%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Sydney to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
95–96
Margin
+1

Who will win Melbourne United vs Sydney?

Our model makes Sydney 53% favourites on the road against Melbourne United and projects a 96–95 final.

Melbourne United have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 97.2 and allowing 98.2 points a game over that stretch. Sydney have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 96.4 and allowing 85.4 points a game over that stretch.

Melbourne United sit 9th at 3–5, while Sydney sit 2nd at 5–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Melbourne United rate +0.7 and Sydney +4.3 points per game against an average side, a 3.6-point edge to Sydney. Home court is worth about 2.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Sydney at 53% across 5 bookmakers.

Sydney to win (53%). Projected score: 96–95. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Tale of the tape

Melbourne UnitedBefore tip-offSydney
  • 3–5Season record5–2
  • 0–3Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–0
  • 3–5Last 10 games5–2
  • L2Current streakW2
  • 93.6Points per game102.0
  • 91.6Points allowed per game88.1
  • +2.0Average margin+13.9
  • 1 dayRest before this game2 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • 36.3Rebounds per game41.5
  • 22.0Assists per game22.3
  • 8.0Three-pointers made per game10.5
  • 23.8Bench points per game23.0
  • +0.7Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+4.3
  • −0.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+2.0
  • +1.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.2
  • +2.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 4 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Melbourne United−1.121.0–22.1−0.124.8–24.9+2.325.3–23.0+1.022.6–21.6
Sydney+1.226.3–25.1+7.326.9–19.6+5.025.0–20.0+0.523.9–23.4

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Cole AnthonyMelbourne UnitedVSTorrey CraigSydney

Leading scorers · averages over the last 4 games

  • 21.3Points20.3
  • 4.5Rebounds8.0
  • 4.8Assists1.5
  • 2.0Three-pointers made3.3
  • 27.6Minutes29.4

Team leaders

Melbourne UnitedThis seasonSydney

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (4 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Cole AnthonyVSTorrey Craig
PTS
21.3·20.3
REB
4.5·8.0
AST
4.8·1.5
Starters
Luke TraversVSK. Davis
PTS
19.5·19.3
REB
6.5·3.0
AST
3.5·10.0
Starters
Josh OduroVSMakuach Maluach
PTS
18.8·15.0
REB
5.8·4.3
AST
1.8·1.8
Starters
Sam WaardenburgVSX. Cooks
PTS
9.5·14.3
REB
5.0·6.3
AST
3.0·3.0
Starters
Malith MacharVSH. Wessels
PTS
5.0·0.5
REB
0.8·1.0
AST
0.0·0.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Melbourne United

Likely starting five

  1. Luke Travers
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    19.5
  2. Cole Anthony
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    21.3
  3. Sam Waardenburg
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    9.5
  4. Josh Oduro
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    18.8
  5. Malith Machar
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    5.0
Away
Sydney

Likely starting five

  1. K. Davis
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    19.3
  2. Torrey Craig
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    20.3
  3. X. Cooks
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    14.3
  4. Makuach Maluach
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    15.0
  5. H. Wessels
    Started 2 of last 4
    PPG
    0.5
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (8)

Recent form

Melbourne United

2–3

3–5, 9th in

Sydney

3–2

5–2, 2nd in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day