Australia2026-27 seasonNBL tips & predictions
- Games played
- 37/165
- Teams
- 10
- Home wins
- 62%
- Avg total
- 189
Top pick · NBL
NBL ·
- Projected
- 97–101
- Spread
- −6.5
- Total
- 198.5
Today, Thursday, October 22 — NBL: 1 game
The strongest pick is Sydney against Illawarra Hawks: 66% to win, with a projected 97–101.
Every game below has a win probability, a projected score and lines for the spread and the total; where bookmakers price a game, the pick leans toward their consensus. Over the 2025–26 season the model called 64% of NBL winners (179 games), against 53% for always backing the home team.
Next games
- Illawarra Hawks97Sydney101Sydney66%LeanLean
Lean: Sydney at 66%, projected 97–101. Market odds for the pick: 1.35.
- Perth93Melbourne United94Melbourne United52%Toss-upToss-up
Close to a coin flip: Melbourne United edge it at 52%, projected 93–94. Market odds for the pick: 1.73.
- Illawarra Hawks100Brisbane Bullets97Illawarra Hawks60%Toss-upToss-up
Close to a coin flip: Illawarra Hawks edge it at 60%, projected 100–97.
- South East Melbourne95Adelaide93South East Melbourne58%Toss-upToss-up
Close to a coin flip: South East Melbourne edge it at 58%, projected 95–93. Market odds for the pick: 1.70.
Recent results
How the NBL season works
The NBL is Australia's professional league, with clubs from Australia and New Zealand. The regular season runs from September to February, the best teams go into a Play-In and playoffs, and the Championship Series decides the title in March. Next Stars, young prospects heading for the NBA draft, give the league extra attention.
What decides NBL games
Games are 40 minutes under FIBA rules, with totals usually in the 170s, higher than most European leagues because the pace is quick. Each club has a small number of imports who carry a big share of the scoring, so import injuries and replacements move the lines. Travel across Australia and to New Zealand makes home court count.
Reading our NBL tips
Each game shows the win probability, a projected score, the line (spread) and the total. A tip at 70% or more is a strong favourite; below 60%, look at the projected margin and total before betting. Our predictions use the market's consensus once odds are out, so late team news moves the tip too.
NBL predictions: questions
- When does the NBL season finish?
- The regular season ends in February, followed by the Play-In and playoffs, and the Championship Series is played in March.
- How many teams play in the NBL?
- Ten clubs, nine from Australia and one from New Zealand, play the regular season.
- Are the NBL tips free?
- Yes: the winner, the win probability and the projected score of every NBL game are free to read without signing up. The line and total picks are part of the Starter and Pro plans, and one game a day is fully unlocked for everyone.
- How accurate are the NBL predictions?
- The model was tested on the whole 2025–26 season, predicting each game only from the games before it: it called 64% of NBL winners in 179 games, against 53% for always backing the home team. Every new pick is settled in public on the accuracy page.
- How many points are scored in NBL games?
- Finished NBL games this season have averaged 189 points in total, and the home team has won 62% of them. Each game's own projected total is on its prediction page.
- When are NBL predictions published?
- Up to 3 days before tip-off. Each prediction is updated as the betting market and the line-ups move, until the game starts.
- What do the spread and the total mean?
- The spread is the projected winning margin: −5.5 means the favourite is expected to win by 6 points or more. The total is the projected number of points both teams score together; the over/under pick says whether the game should finish above or below the bookmakers' line.
- Are the NBL predictions free?
- The winner, the win probability and the projected score of every NBL game are free to read, with no sign-up. The spread and total picks, the market prices and the full analysis are part of the Starter and Pro plans, and one game a day is fully unlocked for everyone.
- How are the predictions made?
- Each team gets attack and defence ratings from this season's games, weighted toward recent form and adjusted for the opponents faced, plus a home-court edge measured for each competition. Where bookmakers price a game, the model is blended with their consensus.