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South East Melbourne vs Adelaide prediction

HomeSouth East Melbourne3–5, 9th in AwayAdelaide4–4, 5th in
Tip-off
57%43%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
South East Melbourne to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
95–93
Margin
+2

Who will win South East Melbourne vs Adelaide?

South East Melbourne are the pick at home against Adelaide with a 57% win probability and a projected 95–93 score.

South East Melbourne enter this game with a 3–5 record, placing them 9th, while Adelaide are 5th at 4–4. Both teams have won two of their last five, but South East Melbourne's recent form shows more scoring punch, averaging 104.0 points per game and allowing 98.0. Adelaide, in contrast, have averaged 86.6 points scored and 92.8 allowed over the same stretch.

On adjusted efficiency, South East Melbourne hold a +0.9 rating against an average side, while Adelaide sit at -0.4. That translates to a 1.3-point edge for South East Melbourne, and home court adds about 2.7 points in this competition. The combination of those factors gives the home side a clear but modest advantage.

The betting market aligns closely with the model, pricing South East Melbourne at 54% after removing the bookmaker margin across three bookmakers. That is slightly below the model's 57% win probability, suggesting the market sees a near coin-flip. With the projected score so tight, the game could hinge on late possessions.

South East Melbourne's higher adjusted efficiency and home-court benefit explain their favouritism, but Adelaide's superior table position and solid defense in recent games keep them dangerous. The 57% win chance is far from decisive, so the lean should be treated with caution.

South East Melbourne to win (57%) with a projected score of 95–93.

Tale of the tape

South East MelbourneBefore tip-offAdelaide
  • 3–5Season record4–4
  • 2–2Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road3–2
  • 3–5Last 10 games4–4
  • W1Current streakW2
  • 96.5Points per game88.8
  • 93.9Points allowed per game90.8
  • +2.6Average margin−2.0
  • 6 daysRest before this game7 days
  • 0Games in the last 7 days0
  • 37.0Rebounds per game31.7
  • 20.5Assists per game21.0
  • 12.3Three-pointers made per game11.7
  • 40.0Bench points per game19.3
  • +0.9Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.4
  • +1.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.3
  • −0.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.9
  • +2.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
South East Melbourne−0.223.1–23.3+6.028.3–22.3−3.423.0–26.4+0.122.1–22.0
Adelaide−3.621.3–24.9−1.021.9–22.9+4.223.6–19.4−1.622.0–23.6

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Nathan SobeySouth East MelbourneVSBryce CottonAdelaide

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 20.0Points28.3
  • 4.0Rebounds3.7
  • 4.8Assists7.3
  • 3.3Three-pointers made5.0
  • 27.4Minutes38.7

Team leaders

South East MelbourneThis seasonAdelaide

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (3 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Nathan SobeyVSBryce Cotton
PTS
20.0·28.3
REB
4.0·3.7
AST
4.8·7.3
Starters
Skylar MaysVSN. Rakocevic
PTS
15.5·20.7
REB
2.8·10.3
AST
5.3·2.7
Starters
Jordan HunterVSZylan Cheatham
PTS
12.3·11.0
REB
7.0·9.0
AST
1.0·5.0
Starters
D'Shawn SchwartzVSK. Rasmussen
PTS
10.8·5.3
REB
3.5·1.3
AST
2.5·2.0
Starters
Yannis MorinVSJacob Rigoni
PTS
6.3·5.0
REB
5.5·2.7
AST
0.8·1.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
South East Melbourne

Likely starting five

  1. Nathan Sobey
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    20.0
  2. D'Shawn Schwartz
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    10.8
  3. Skylar Mays
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    15.5
  4. Yannis Morin
    Started 2 of last 4
    PPG
    6.3
  5. Jordan Hunter
    Started 2 of last 4
    PPG
    12.3
Missed the last game
Away
Adelaide

Likely starting five

  1. Bryce Cotton
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    28.3
  2. Zylan Cheatham
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    11.0
  3. N. Rakocevic
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    20.7
  4. Jacob Rigoni
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.0
  5. K. Rasmussen
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.3
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (10)

Bryce Cotton: DaHuzyBru, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jordan Hunter: Abbyisip, CC BY-SA 4.0; Skylar Mays: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; D'Shawn Schwartz: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Yannis Morin: (:Julien:), CC BY-SA 3.0; Angus Glover: Abbyisip, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tanner Krebs: SD Dirk, CC BY 2.0; Zylan Cheatham: SneakinDeacon, CC BY-SA 2.0; Corey Webster: DaHuzyBru, CC BY-SA 4.0; Isaac White: Ron Sellers, CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

South East Melbourne

2–3

3–5, 9th in

Adelaide

2–3

4–4, 5th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day