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Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors prediction

HomePhoenix Suns1–4, 13th in Western ConferenceAwayGolden State Warriors4–2, 4th in Western Conference
Tip-off
51%49%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Phoenix Suns to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
114–113
Margin
+1

Who will win Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?

Phoenix Suns are the pick at home with a 51% win probability and a projected 114–113 score.

Phoenix Suns have lost four of their last five and sit 13th in the Western Conference at 1–4, scoring 104.2 while allowing 117.6 points a game over that stretch. Golden State Warriors are 4–2 and fourth in the West, with three wins in five and a scoring rate of 112.6 that matches their allowance. The recent form and the table point in the same direction, toward the visitor.

Adjusted efficiency tells a narrower story. Golden State Warriors rate -0.6 points per game against an average side, Phoenix Suns -3.9, a 3.3-point edge to Golden State Warriors. Home court is worth about 3.8 points in this competition, which is just enough to flip that edge back toward Phoenix Suns and explains why the model barely separates them.

That thin margin is why the market's view of the winner is close to a coin flip: Phoenix Suns to win comes in at 51%, with a projected 114–113 score. The pick rests on home court rather than on form or efficiency, and it should be treated with care rather than conviction.

Phoenix Suns' defensive numbers over the last five are the main argument against them, and Golden State Warriors' balanced scoring and allowance give the visitor a real case. The head-to-head picture and the ratings leave the teams nearly level once home court is applied, so the lean stays small.

Phoenix Suns to win at 51%, with a projected 114–113 score.

Tale of the tape

Phoenix SunsBefore tip-offGolden State Warriors
  • 0–1Season record0–1
  • 0–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 0–1Last 10 games0–1
  • L1Current streakL1
  • 83.0Points per game105.0
  • 124.0Points allowed per game127.0
  • −41.0Average margin−22.0
  • 2 daysRest before this gameBack-to-back
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • 38.0Rebounds per game36.0
  • 13.0Assists per game25.0
  • 5.0Three-pointers made per game8.0
  • 27.0Bench points per game56.0
  • −3.9Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.6
  • −3.2AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.6
  • −0.7DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.0
  • +3.8Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 1 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Phoenix Suns−31.012.0–43.0−2.027.0–29.0−8.027.0–35.00.017.0–17.0
Golden State Warriors−1.033.0–34.0−13.019.0–32.0−20.016.0–36.0+12.037.0–25.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Devin BookerGuard · Phoenix SunsVSStephen CurryGuard · Golden State Warriors

Leading scorers · averages over the last 1 games

  • 23.0Points23.0
  • 4.0Rebounds2.0
  • 2.0Assists1.0
  • 0.0Three-pointers made2.0
  • 29.4Minutes21.2

Team leaders

Phoenix SunsThis seasonGolden State Warriors

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (1 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Guards
Devin BookerVSStephen Curry
PTS
23.0·23.0
REB
4.0·2.0
AST
2.0·1.0
Guards
Jalen GreenVSDe'Anthony Melton
PTS
10.0·0.0
REB
2.0·2.0
AST
3.0·2.0
Forwards
Dillon BrooksVSGui Santos
PTS
10.0·12.0
REB
4.0·5.0
AST
0.0·0.0
Forwards
Miles BridgesVSDraymond Green
PTS
8.0·2.0
REB
4.0·4.0
AST
0.0·8.0
Starters
K. MaluachVSY. Lendeborg
PTS
2.0·12.0
REB
6.0·3.0
AST
1.0·2.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Phoenix Suns

Likely starting five

  1. Devin Booker
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    23.0
  2. Miles Bridges
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    8.0
  3. Dillon Brooks
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    10.0
  4. Jalen Green
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    10.0
  5. K. Maluach
    Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    2.0
Away
Golden State Warriors

Likely starting five

  1. Y. Lendeborg
    Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    12.0
  2. Gui Santos
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    12.0
  3. Draymond Green
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    2.0
  4. Stephen Curry
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    23.0
  5. De'Anthony Melton
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    0.0
Full lineups and bench
Photo credits (14)

Stephen Curry: Cyrus Saatsaz, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jalen Green: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Gui Santos: Hoop District, CC BY 3.0; Draymond Green: Chensiyuan, CC BY-SA 4.0; Miles Bridges: TonyTheTiger, CC BY-SA 4.0; Dillon Brooks: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jordan Goodwin: TonyTheTiger, CC BY-SA 4.0; Collin Gillespie: Ken Jancef, CC BY 2.0; Duop Reath: Frenchieinportland, CC BY 4.0; Y. Lendeborg: TonyTheTiger, CC0; De'Anthony Melton: Frenchieinportland, CC BY-SA 4.0; Georges Niang: Max Goldberg, CC BY 2.0; Brandon Williams: Sgt. Nataja Ford, Public domain; Al Horford: The White House, Public domain · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Phoenix Suns

1–4

1–4, 13th in Western Conference

Golden State Warriors

3–2

4–2, 4th in Western Conference

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day