Anadolu Efes vs Korfez Basket prediction

Anadolu Efes are the pick to win at home against Korfez Basket, with a 71% probability and a projected score of 84–79.

Anadolu Efes come into this one on the better run, having taken 3 of their last 4 while putting up 83.8 points a game and conceding 77.3 across that stretch. Korfez Basket have won 2 of their last 4, but their scoring and defense have pulled in opposite directions, with 83.0 points scored and 81.3 allowed. The gap between those defensive numbers is where the home side's case starts.

Adjusted efficiency tells a similar story. Anadolu Efes rate +1.9 points per game against an average side, while Korfez Basket sit at +0.4, a 1.5-point edge to the home team. Add home court, worth about 3.3 points in this competition, and the ratings explain why the model leans so clearly toward Anadolu Efes.

Korfez Basket's case rests on an offense that has been productive over the last four games, and 83.0 points a night is enough to keep them in touch if the defensive leaks are patched. The 84–79 projection leaves little room for error, though, and it is Anadolu Efes who are favoured at 71%.

The market's view of the winner lines up with the ratings: Anadolu Efes are priced as the stronger side at home, and the model's 71% is the clearest expression of that. Korfez Basket need the higher-scoring version of themselves to make this a close game.

Anadolu Efes to win at 71%, with a projected score of 84–79.