Pato vs Botafogo prediction

Botafogo are the narrow pick at 50%, with a projected 77–76 scoreline.

Both teams arrive on the back of a loss, so this is a meeting of sides still looking for their first win. Pato have scored 74.0 and allowed 80.0 points a game over their last 1, while Botafogo have put up 71.0 and conceded 81.0 over the same stretch. Neither defensive record is flattering, which is part of why the model expects a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a blowout.

The table offers little separation either: Pato are 13th at 0–1 and Botafogo are 14th at 0–1, one place and nothing else between them. That proximity is reflected in the ratings, where Botafogo's edge is small enough that the projected 77–76 margin sits inside a single possession. Pato's home setting is the main counterweight, but the model still gives the visitors the larger share.

The market reads the game the same way. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Botafogo are priced at 53%, which lines up with the model's 50% and confirms that this is close to a coin flip. With so little between the teams, the lean toward Botafogo should be treated with care rather than as a strong position.

The projected score of 77–76 implies a one-point game, so Botafogo -2 covers only 44% of the time on our numbers. The total is a different story: the projection of 140 points sits well below the 157 line, and the under lands 67%.

Pick: Botafogo to win (50%), projected score 77–76.

Botafogo to win (50%), projected score 77–76.