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Gdynia vs Gornik Walbrzych prediction

HomeGdynia2–1, 11th in AwayGornik Walbrzych2–1, 3rd in
Tip-off
67%33%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Gdynia to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
84–79
Margin
+5

Who will win Gdynia vs Gornik Walbrzych?

Gdynia are 67% favourites at home against Gornik Walbrzych, with a projected 84–79 win.

Gdynia and Gornik Walbrzych arrive with identical 2–1 records, but the table separates them sharply: Gdynia are 11th, Gornik Walbrzych 3rd. Recent form is nearly a mirror too, both sides having won 2 of their last 3. What tips this one is the venue and a razor-thin efficiency gap.

On adjusted efficiency the two teams are almost inseparable, Gdynia at +2.1 and Gornik Walbrzych at +2 points per game against an average side, a 0.1-point edge to the hosts. Home court, worth about 2 points in this competition, is the real separator. Gdynia's recent scoring of 88.0 a game against 76.0 allowed gives them the more explosive profile over that stretch, while Gornik Walbrzych have been tighter at 80.7 scored and 74.7 allowed.

The market has read this the same way, pricing Gdynia at 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed across 6 bookmakers, slightly above our 67%. That makes Gdynia the clear pick, though the small efficiency margin and Gornik Walbrzych's stronger table position mean the visitors have a case to keep it close.

The projected 84–79 final fits the numbers: a modest home edge, a near-even efficiency matchup and two teams in comparable form. Gdynia's home advantage does the decisive work in the model.

Gdynia to win (67%), projected score 84–79.

Tale of the tape

GdyniaBefore tip-offGornik Walbrzych
  • 2–1Season record2–1
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–1
  • 2–1Last 10 games2–1
  • L1Current streakW2
  • 88.0Points per game80.7
  • 76.0Points allowed per game74.7
  • +12.0Average margin+6.0
  • 7 daysRest before this game6 days
  • 0Games in the last 7 days0
  • 34.3Rebounds per game35.3
  • 21.7Assists per game15.7
  • 10.7Three-pointers made per game7.3
  • 17.0Bench points per game40.3
  • +2.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+2.0
  • +0.7AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.3
  • +1.4DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.4
  • +2.0Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Gdynia+0.722.0–21.3+1.423.7–22.3+5.620.3–14.7+4.322.0–17.7
Gornik Walbrzych−3.618.7–22.3+2.721.7–19.0−0.420.3–20.7+7.718.7–11.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Alex SteinGdyniaVSMichaelyn ScottGornik Walbrzych

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 19.3Points14.0
  • 3.7Rebounds2.3
  • 5.0Assists3.7
  • 1.3Three-pointers made1.3
  • 31.2Minutes29.0

Team leaders

GdyniaThis seasonGornik Walbrzych

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (3 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Alex SteinVSMichaelyn Scott
PTS
19.3·14.0
REB
3.7·2.3
AST
5.0·3.7
Starters
K. SuurorgVSLeemet Bockler
PTS
18.0·11.0
REB
2.7·4.7
AST
3.3·2.0
Starters
Jakub GarbaczVSKenny Goins
PTS
17.0·6.0
REB
2.3·4.3
AST
1.3·1.0
Starters
Mate VucicVSDariusz Wyka
PTS
8.3·5.0
REB
9.7·4.0
AST
5.7·2.0
Starters
J. LawrenceVSMaciej Bojanowski
PTS
7.0·4.0
REB
5.3·2.0
AST
0.3·0.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Gdynia

Likely starting five

  1. Mate Vucic
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    8.3
  2. Alex Stein
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    19.3
  3. Jakub Garbacz
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    17.0
  4. K. Suurorg
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    18.0
  5. J. Lawrence
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    7.0
Away
Gornik Walbrzych

Likely starting five

  1. Michaelyn Scott
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    14.0
  2. Leemet Bockler
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    11.0
  3. Kenny Goins
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    6.0
  4. Dariusz Wyka
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.0
  5. Maciej Bojanowski
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    4.0
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages

Photo credits: Alex Stein: Zmechowiec 75, CC0; Jakub Garbacz: bad crop by Dudek1337, CC BY-SA 4.0; Kamil Laczynski: Andrzej Romański, CC BY-SA 3.0; Kenny Goins: Basketinside il basket a 360°, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Gdynia

2–1

2–1, 11th in

Gornik Walbrzych

2–1

2–1, 3rd in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day