Nagasaki vs SeaHorses Mikawa prediction
Our pick
LeanPrediction updated
- Predicted score
- 79–86
- Margin
- +7
Who will win Nagasaki vs SeaHorses Mikawa?
SeaHorses Mikawa are the pick at 71% to win on the road, with a projected score of 86–79.
SeaHorses Mikawa arrive as the stronger side by results, having won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 93.0 and allowing 83.0 points a game over that stretch. Nagasaki are still searching for a first win, at 0 of their last 5, with 80.0 scored and 89.0 allowed across those games. The gap in recent output is clear: SeaHorses Mikawa are putting up more points and conceding fewer.
The table reinforces the form picture. Nagasaki sit 12th in the Western Conference at 0–0, while SeaHorses Mikawa sit 6th in the Western Conference at 0–0. The records are level on paper, but the standings and the recent run both place SeaHorses Mikawa ahead of their hosts.
On adjusted efficiency, Nagasaki rate -2.5 and SeaHorses Mikawa +5.5 points per game against an average side, an 8-point edge to SeaHorses Mikawa. Home court is worth about 1.4 points in this competition, which trims that advantage but does not erase it. The ratings explain why the model makes SeaHorses Mikawa a clear road favourite rather than a narrow one.
Nagasaki's case rests on the venue and the small cushion it provides, plus the possibility that their scoring average of 80.0 holds up against a SeaHorses Mikawa defence allowing 83.0. The model still gives SeaHorses Mikawa 71% to win, and the projected score of 86–79 reflects a game that stays competitive without flipping the favourite.
SeaHorses Mikawa to win at 71%, with a projected score of 86–79.
Tale of the tape
- 6–12Season record11–3
- 4–4Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road6–2
- 3–7Last 10 games8–2
- L5Current streakW3
- 77.3Points per game91.9
- 82.2Points allowed per game79.9
- −4.9Average margin+12.0
- 2 daysRest before this game2 days
- 2Games in the last 7 days2
- 31.3Rebounds per game34.1
- 22.3Assists per game21.4
- 11.4Three-pointers made per game11.6
- 38.6Bench points per game52.7
- −2.5Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+5.5
- −3.9AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+3.5
- +1.4DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.1
- +1.2Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–
Team numbers per game from the last 9 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.
Quarter by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagasaki | −1.019.8–20.8 | +3.122.5–19.4 | −1.220.7–21.9 | −3.018.6–21.6 |
| SeaHorses Mikawa | +4.724.8–20.1 | −3.620.2–23.8 | +5.022.7–17.7 | +5.125.7–20.6 |
Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.
Key matchup
Leading scorers · averages over the last 5 games
- 19.0Points20.6
- 3.6Rebounds7.2
- 4.0Assists2.8
- 1.8Three-pointers made2.2
- 28.9Minutes27.1
Team leaders
- Points · PPG
- Rebounds · RPG
- Assists · APG
- Three-pointers made · 3PM
Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (9 per team); current squads only.
Key battles
Player projectionsPro
Likely lineups
Likely starting five
- J. BrantleyStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 18.0
- RPG
- 6.0
- APG
- 4.4
- K. KumagaiStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 5.4
- RPG
- 3.0
- APG
- 5.8
- M. MorikawaStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 7.4
- RPG
- 0.8
- APG
- 0.4
- Y. BabaStarted 1 of last 5
- PPG
- 14.0
- RPG
- 5.5
- APG
- 2.3
- Akil MitchellStarted 1 of last 5
- PPG
- 10.0
- RPG
- 9.5
- APG
- 3.5
- P. Aguilar10.5 PTS · 29.3 MIN
Likely starting five
- D. GardnerStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 20.6
- RPG
- 7.2
- APG
- 2.8
- Y. NishidaStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 14.4
- RPG
- 4.8
- APG
- 3.8
- S. O'MaraStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 12.6
- RPG
- 6.2
- APG
- 2.0
- Y. KubotaStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 10.0
- RPG
- 1.8
- APG
- 2.8
- Y. SudaStarted 2 of last 5
- PPG
- 6.8
- RPG
- 1.0
- APG
- 2.2
Photo credits (4)
- Levi Randolph · Fire90, CC BY-SA 4.0
- D. Gardner · Dennis Adair, CC BY-SA 2.0
- P. Aguilar · Elemaki, CC BY 3.0
- Akil Mitchell · Rikster2, CC BY-SA 4.0
Recent form
Nagasaki
0–50–0, 12th in Western Conference
- @ Chiba80–86
- @ Alvark73–82
- vs Sendai87–107
- @ Hiroshima D.73–80
- @ Kobe87–90
SeaHorses Mikawa
4–10–0, 6th in Western Conference
- vs Toyama111–70
- vs Shinshu91–86
- vs Shiga96–91
- vs Gunma83–90
- vs Saga84–78
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
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