Basketora

Hiroshima D. vs Altiri Chiba prediction

HomeHiroshima D.0–0, 11th in Western ConferenceAwayAltiri Chiba0–0, 13th in Eastern Conference
Tip-off
73%27%
Win probability

Our pick

Strong
Hiroshima D. to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
88–81
Margin
+7

Last meeting

Altiri Chiba71–89Hiroshima D.

Who will win Hiroshima D. vs Altiri Chiba?

Hiroshima D. are the pick at home against Altiri Chiba, with a 73% win probability and a projected 88–81 final.

Hiroshima D. carry a clear edge into this home game against Altiri Chiba, and the model's 73% win probability reflects it. The adjusted efficiency numbers explain the gap: Hiroshima D. rate +3.1 points per game against an average side, while Altiri Chiba sit at -2.8, a 5.9-point difference before home court is even considered. Home court adds roughly 1.2 points in this competition, which pushes the advantage further toward the hosts.

Both teams have won 3 of their last 5, so recent form alone does not separate them. The scoring profiles do differ: Hiroshima D. have put up 84.6 points a game over that stretch but allowed 87.8, while Altiri Chiba have scored 83.6 and conceded 80.0. That makes Altiri Chiba the more defensively solid side of late, and it is the main reason the visitors have a case despite the ratings gap.

The table offers little guidance, with Hiroshima D. 11th in the Western Conference at 0–0 and Altiri Chiba 13th in the Eastern Conference at 0–0. The head-to-head sample is small but points one way: the teams have met 1 time recently, Hiroshima D. winning that meeting, the latest finishing Altiri Chiba 71–89 Hiroshima D. on 2026-10-17. The market agrees with the model on the winner, making Hiroshima D. a 73% favourite.

Hiroshima D. to win at 73%, with a projected 88–81 final.

Tale of the tape

Hiroshima D.Before tip-offAltiri Chiba
  • 13–3Season record7–11
  • 6–2Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road4–6
  • 7–3Last 10 games5–5
  • L2Current streakL1
  • 89.9Points per game79.8
  • 82.1Points allowed per game84.7
  • +7.8Average margin−4.9
  • 1 dayRest before this game1 day
  • 2Games in the last 7 days3
  • 34.3Rebounds per game33.7
  • 19.2Assists per game22.0
  • 8.8Three-pointers made per game10.1
  • 30.8Bench points per game48.0
  • +3.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−2.8
  • +2.3AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.7
  • +0.8DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.1
  • +1.3Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 9 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Hiroshima D.+1.023.4–22.4+1.822.9–21.1+1.121.1–20.0+0.219.6–19.4
Altiri Chiba+2.222.5–20.3−1.219.8–21.0−4.418.0–22.4+2.020.2–18.2

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

D. EvansHiroshima D.VSD. PardonAltiri Chiba

Leading scorers · averages over the last 5 games

  • 20.6Points15.4
  • 8.0Rebounds8.6
  • 4.6Assists2.8
  • 1.0Three-pointers made0.0
  • 31.7Minutes28.4

Team leaders

Hiroshima D.This seasonAltiri Chiba

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (9 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
D. EvansVSD. Pardon
PTS
20.6·15.4
REB
8.0·8.6
AST
4.6·2.8
Starters
Christopher SmithVSD. Newbill
PTS
18.8·14.4
REB
4.0·4.2
AST
3.4·4.4
Starters
N. MayoVSA. Davis
PTS
10.8·10.0
REB
4.2·8.0
AST
2.2·3.6
Starters
R. SatoVSL. Watanabe
PTS
6.2·7.2
REB
1.6·1.2
AST
2.6·0.6
Starters
K. HareyamaVSK. Sugimoto
PTS
2.0·5.0
REB
0.5·3.0
AST
0.5·4.8

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Hiroshima D.

Likely starting five

  1. D. Evans
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    20.6
  2. N. Mayo
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    10.8
  3. Christopher Smith
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    18.8
  4. R. Sato
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    6.2
  5. K. Hareyama
    Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    2.0
Missed the last game
Away
Altiri Chiba

Likely starting five

  1. D. Newbill
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    14.4
  2. A. Davis
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    10.0
  3. D. Pardon
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    15.4
  4. K. Sugimoto
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    5.0
  5. L. Watanabe
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    7.2
Full lineups and benchHiroshima D. vs Altiri Chiba: player stats and box score
Photo credits (5)

Recent form

Hiroshima D.

3–2

0–0, 11th in Western Conference

Altiri Chiba

3–2

0–0, 13th in Eastern Conference

Head to head

  • Altiri Chiba 71–89 Hiroshima D.

Other games that day