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UT Arlington vs UTRGV result

HomeUT Arlington4–1, 1st in United AthleticAwayUTRGV2–2, 8th in Southland
85–77Final
73%27%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
UT Arlington to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
76–68
Margin
+8
Result
85–77

Our lines

Point spread
−4.5UT Arlington to cover · 66%
Total points
140.5Over · 58% · projected 149.9
Fair odds
1.37UT Arlington · UTRGV 3.67

Who will win UT Arlington vs UTRGV?

The numbers side with UT Arlington (73%) at home against UTRGV, with 76–68 the most likely shape of the final score.

UT Arlington have won 3 of their last 4, scoring 89.0 and allowing 69.3 points a game over that stretch. UTRGV have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 71.3 and allowing 62.0 points a game over that stretch.

UT Arlington sit 2nd in the United Athletic at 3–1, while UTRGV sit 6th in the Southland at 2–1.

On adjusted efficiency, UT Arlington rate +5.4 and UTRGV -2.6 points per game against an average side, a 8-point edge to UT Arlington. Home court is worth about 12.4 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices UT Arlington at 64% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, UT Arlington -4.5 covers 66% of the time on our numbers, and the over 140.5 lands 58% against a projected 149.9 points.

UT Arlington to win (73%). Projected score: 76–68.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)UT Arlington94%64%73%1.37
Winner (incl. overtime)UTRGV6%36%27%3.67
Point spreadUT Arlington -4.588%51%66%1.52
Point spreadUTRGV +4.512%49%34%2.92
Total pointsOver 140.573%48%58%1.72
Total pointsUnder 140.527%52%42%2.39
1st half spreadUT Arlington -4.548%–48%2.09
1st half spreadUTRGV +4.552%–52%1.92
1st half total pointsOver 68.550%–50%2.00
1st half total pointsUnder 68.550%–50%2.00

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

UT ArlingtonBefore tip-offUTRGV
  • 3–1Season record2–1
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–0
  • 3–1Last 10 games2–1
  • W1Current streakL1
  • 89.0Points per game71.3
  • 69.3Points allowed per game62.0
  • +19.7Average margin+9.3
  • 4 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • +5.4Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−2.6
  • +3.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.8
  • +1.6DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.2
  • +12.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
UT Arlington0.00.0–0.0+12.043.0–31.00.00.0–0.0+7.746.0–38.3
UTRGV0.00.0–0.0+7.333.3–26.00.00.0–0.0+2.038.0–36.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

UT Arlington

3–1

4–1, 1st in United Athletic

UTRGV

2–1

2–2, 8th in Southland

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day