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San Francisco vs Portland State result

HomeSan Francisco3–1, 4th in West CoastAwayPortland State2–2, 5th in Big Sky
68–84Final
81%19%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed
San Francisco to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
78–67
Margin
+11
Result
68–84

Our lines

Point spread
−9.5San Francisco to cover · 54%
Total points
143.5Over · 53% · projected 147.0
Fair odds
1.23San Francisco · Portland State 5.28

Who will win San Francisco vs Portland State?

The numbers side with San Francisco (81%) at home against Portland State, with 78–67 the most likely shape of the final score.

San Francisco have won 3 of their last 3, scoring 72.7 and allowing 63.3 points a game over that stretch. Portland State have won 1 of their last 3, scoring 80.7 and allowing 75.0 points a game over that stretch.

San Francisco sit 2nd in the West Coast at 3–0, while Portland State sit 5th in the Big Sky at 1–2.

On adjusted efficiency, San Francisco rate -1.1 and Portland State -1.3 points per game against an average side, a 0.3-point edge to San Francisco. Home court is worth about 12.4 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices San Francisco at 80% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, San Francisco -9.5 covers 54% of the time on our numbers, and the over 143.5 lands 53% against a projected 147 points.

San Francisco to win (81%). Projected score: 78–67.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)San Francisco83%80%81%1.23
Winner (incl. overtime)Portland State17%20%19%5.28
Point spreadSan Francisco -9.559%50%54%1.86
Point spreadPortland State +9.541%50%46%2.16
Total pointsOver 143.559%50%53%1.87
Total pointsUnder 143.541%50%47%2.15
1st half spreadSan Francisco -5.552%–52%1.94
1st half spreadPortland State +5.548%–48%2.07
1st half total pointsOver 69.548%–48%2.08
1st half total pointsUnder 69.552%–52%1.93

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

San FranciscoBefore tip-offPortland State
  • 3–0Season record1–2
  • 3–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 3–0Last 10 games1–2
  • W3Current streakL2
  • 72.7Points per game80.7
  • 63.3Points allowed per game75.0
  • +9.4Average margin+5.7
  • 3 daysRest before this game2 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • −1.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.4
  • −2.4AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.8
  • +1.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.6
  • +12.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
San Francisco0.00.0–0.0+6.336.0–29.70.00.0–0.0+3.036.7–33.7
Portland State0.00.0–0.0+2.035.0–33.00.00.0–0.0+3.745.7–42.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

San Francisco

3–0

3–1, 4th in West Coast

Portland State

1–2

2–2, 5th in Big Sky

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day