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UALR vs Northwestern St. result

HomeUALR1–3, 8th in United AthleticAwayNorthwestern St.1–4, 11th in Southland
84–83Final (OT)
81%19%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
UALR to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
79–67
Margin
+12
Result
84–83

Our lines

Point spread
−9.5UALR to cover · 55%
Total points
143.5Over · 57% · projected 151.5
Fair odds
1.24UALR · Northwestern St. 5.24

Who will win UALR vs Northwestern St.?

UALR are the pick at 81% to beat Northwestern St. at home, with a projected final of 79–67.

UALR carry an 0–3 conference record into this home game, and their recent form explains the position: 73.3 points scored and 86.3 allowed across the last three. Northwestern St. have not been much better, winning one of four while scoring 64.3 and conceding 77.8. Both teams are losing more than they win, but the visitors' scoring output is the lower of the two.

The table reflects that gap in results. UALR are 8th in the United Athletic at 0–3, Northwestern St. 11th in the Southland at 1–3. On adjusted efficiency the difference is thin, with UALR at -1.9 and Northwestern St. at -2.6 points per game against an average side, a 0.7-point edge. That small margin is amplified by home court, worth about 12.9 points in this competition, which is the main reason the model leans so heavily toward UALR.

The market reads the game the same way. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, UALR are priced at 80% across 8 bookmakers, essentially matching the model's 81%. The projected 79–67 scoreline fits that view: UALR's home advantage and slightly better efficiency separate the teams, while Northwestern St.'s case rests on UALR's three-game losing run and the 86.3 points they have been allowing.

The projected 79–67 final puts UALR 12 points clear, and on our numbers UALR -9.5 covers 56% of the time. The projected 151.8 points sits above the 143.5 line, and the over lands 58%.

UALR to win (81%). Projected score: 79–67.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)UALR84%80%81%1.24
Winner (incl. overtime)Northwestern St.16%20%19%5.24
Point spreadUALR -9.561%51%55%1.82
Point spreadNorthwestern St. +9.539%49%45%2.23
Total pointsOver 143.570%49%57%1.75
Total pointsUnder 143.530%51%43%2.34
1st half spreadUALR -5.551%–51%1.95
1st half spreadNorthwestern St. +5.549%–49%2.06
1st half total pointsOver 69.551%–51%1.96
1st half total pointsUnder 69.549%–49%2.05

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

UALRBefore tip-offNorthwestern St.
  • 0–3Season record1–3
  • 0–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–3
  • 0–3Last 10 games1–3
  • L3Current streakW1
  • 73.3Points per game64.3
  • 86.3Points allowed per game77.8
  • −13.0Average margin−13.5
  • 3 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days2
  • −1.9Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−2.7
  • +0.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.0
  • −2.0DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.7
  • +12.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
UALR0.00.0–0.0−8.035.3–43.30.00.0–0.0−5.038.0–43.0
Northwestern St.0.00.0–0.0−7.533.0–40.50.00.0–0.0−6.031.3–37.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

UALR

0–3

1–3, 8th in United Athletic

Northwestern St.

1–3

1–4, 11th in Southland

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day