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Loyola Maryland vs Morgan State result

HomeLoyola Maryland1–4, 7th in Patriot LeagueAwayMorgan State4–1, 1st in Mid-Eastern Athletic
61–63Final (OT)
55%45%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed
Loyola Maryland to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
76–74
Margin
+2
Result
61–63

Our lines

Point spread
−1.5Loyola Maryland to cover · 54%
Total points
151.5Under · 53% · projected 147.1
Fair odds
1.81Loyola Maryland · Morgan State 2.24

Who will win Loyola Maryland vs Morgan State?

Our model makes Loyola Maryland 55% favourites at home against Morgan State and projects a 76–74 final.

Loyola Maryland have won 1 of their last 4, scoring 70.3 and allowing 75.5 points a game over that stretch. Morgan State have won 3 of their last 4, scoring 85.3 and allowing 65.5 points a game over that stretch.

Loyola Maryland sit 7th in the Patriot League at 1–3, while Morgan State sit 1st in the Mid-Eastern Athletic at 3–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Loyola Maryland rate -2.2 and Morgan State +4 points per game against an average side, a 6.1-point edge to Morgan State. Home court is worth about 12.5 points in this competition.

The market leans the other way, pricing Morgan State at 50%; our edge on Loyola Maryland is large enough to stand.

Against the market lines, Loyola Maryland -1.5 covers 54% of the time on our numbers, and the under 151.5 lands 53% against a projected 147 points.

Loyola Maryland to win (55%). Projected score: 76–74. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Loyola Maryland68%50%55%1.81
Winner (incl. overtime)Morgan State32%50%45%2.24
Point spreadLoyola Maryland -1.564%47%54%1.86
Point spreadMorgan State +1.536%53%46%2.17
Total pointsOver 151.539%53%47%2.13
Total pointsUnder 151.562%47%53%1.89
1st half spreadLoyola Maryland -0.552%–52%1.93
1st half spreadMorgan State +0.548%–48%2.07
1st half total pointsOver 71.551%–51%1.97
1st half total pointsUnder 71.549%–49%2.03

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Loyola MarylandBefore tip-offMorgan State
  • 1–3Season record3–1
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–1
  • 1–3Last 10 games3–1
  • L1Current streakL1
  • 70.3Points per game85.3
  • 75.5Points allowed per game65.5
  • −5.2Average margin+19.8
  • 1 dayRest before this game1 day
  • 2Games in the last 7 days2
  • −2.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+4.0
  • −2.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.4
  • +0.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.5
  • +12.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Loyola Maryland0.00.0–0.0−6.028.5–34.50.00.0–0.0+0.841.8–41.0
Morgan State0.00.0–0.0+12.744.5–31.80.00.0–0.0+7.040.8–33.8

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Loyola Maryland

1–3

1–4, 7th in Patriot League

Morgan State

3–1

4–1, 1st in Mid-Eastern Athletic

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day