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Old Dominion vs Longwood result

HomeOld Dominion5–0, 1st in Sun BeltAwayLongwood3–2, 2nd in Big South
80–74Final
79%21%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Old Dominion to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
76–65
Margin
+11
Result
80–74

Our lines

Point spread
−7.5Old Dominion to cover · 62%
Total points
137.5Over · 58% · projected 146.8
Fair odds
1.27Old Dominion · Longwood 4.74

Who will win Old Dominion vs Longwood?

The numbers side with Old Dominion (79%) at home against Longwood, with 76–65 the most likely shape of the final score.

Old Dominion have won 4 of their last 4, scoring 76.3 and allowing 54.5 points a game over that stretch. Longwood have won 3 of their last 4, scoring 94.3 and allowing 67.3 points a game over that stretch.

Old Dominion sit 1st in the Sun Belt at 4–0, while Longwood sit 2nd in the Big South at 3–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Old Dominion rate +4.2 and Longwood -0.2 points per game against an average side, a 4.5-point edge to Old Dominion. Home court is worth about 12.8 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Old Dominion at 74% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Old Dominion -7.5 covers 62% of the time on our numbers, and the over 137.5 lands 58% against a projected 146.8 points.

Old Dominion to win (79%). Projected score: 76–65.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Old Dominion90%74%79%1.27
Winner (incl. overtime)Longwood10%26%21%4.74
Point spreadOld Dominion -7.577%52%62%1.62
Point spreadLongwood +7.523%48%38%2.62
Total pointsOver 137.573%48%58%1.73
Total pointsUnder 137.527%52%42%2.37
1st half spreadOld Dominion -5.549%–49%2.03
1st half spreadLongwood +5.551%–51%1.97
1st half total pointsOver 66.552%–52%1.93
1st half total pointsUnder 66.548%–48%2.08

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Old DominionBefore tip-offLongwood
  • 4–0Season record3–1
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 4–0Last 10 games3–1
  • W4Current streakW2
  • 76.3Points per game94.3
  • 54.5Points allowed per game67.3
  • +21.8Average margin+27.0
  • 2 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • +4.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.2
  • −0.6AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.5
  • +4.9DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.7
  • +12.8Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Old Dominion0.00.0–0.0+13.836.8–23.00.00.0–0.0+8.039.5–31.5
Longwood0.00.0–0.0+14.842.8–28.00.00.0–0.0+11.048.5–37.5

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Old Dominion

4–0

5–0, 1st in Sun Belt

Longwood

3–1

3–2, 2nd in Big South

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day