Western Carolina vs Lipscomb result

HomeWestern Carolina2–2, 4th in Southern AwayLipscomb3–2, 2nd in ASUN

68–75Final

70%30%

Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed

Western Carolina to win

Prediction updated Sat, Nov 14, 11:50 PM UTC

Predicted score: 82–75
Margin: +7
Result: 68–75

Our lines

Point spread

−3.5Western Carolina to cover · 66%

Total points

156.5Over · 50% · projected 155.9

Fair odds

1.42Western Carolina · Lipscomb 3.38

Who will win Western Carolina vs Lipscomb?

Our model makes Western Carolina 70% favourites at home against Lipscomb and projects a 82–75 final.

Western Carolina have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 97.0 and allowing 74.3 points a game over that stretch. Lipscomb have won 2 of their last 4, scoring 74.8 and allowing 78.5 points a game over that stretch.

Western Carolina sit 3rd in the Southern at 2–1, while Lipscomb sit 2nd in the ASUN at 2–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Western Carolina rate +5.8 and Lipscomb -1.3 points per game against an average side, a 7.1-point edge to Western Carolina. Home court is worth about 12.4 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Western Carolina at 61% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Western Carolina -3.5 covers 66% of the time on our numbers, and the over 156.5 lands 50% against a projected 155.8 points.

Western Carolina to win (70%). Projected score: 82–75.

Markets

Market	Selection	Model	Market	Final	Fair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)	Western Carolina	93%	61%	70%	1.42
Winner (incl. overtime)	Lipscomb	7%	39%	30%	3.38
Point spread	Western Carolina -3.5	88%	51%	66%	1.52
Point spread	Lipscomb +3.5	12%	49%	34%	2.93
Total points	Over 156.5	48%	51%	50%	2.00
Total points	Under 156.5	52%	49%	50%	2.00
1st half spread	Western Carolina -3.5	50%	–	50%	1.99
1st half spread	Lipscomb +3.5	50%	–	50%	2.01
1st half total points	Over 74.5	50%	–	50%	1.98
1st half total points	Under 74.5	50%	–	50%	2.02

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Western CarolinaBefore tip-offLipscomb

2–1Season record2–2
1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
2–1Last 10 games2–2
W2Current streakW2
97.0Points per game74.8
74.3Points allowed per game78.5
+22.7Average margin−3.7
2 daysRest before this game3 days
1Games in the last 7 days1
+5.8Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.3
+5.0AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.2
+0.8DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.1
+12.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Western Carolina	0.00.0–0.0	+14.449.7–35.3	0.00.0–0.0	+8.347.3–39.0
Lipscomb	0.00.0–0.0	+3.039.3–36.3	0.00.0–0.0	−6.835.5–42.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form