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North Florida vs Citadel result

HomeNorth Florida1–3, 6th in ASUNAwayCitadel3–1, 2nd in Southern
74–77Final
62%38%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed
North Florida to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
79–75
Margin
+4
Result
74–77

Our lines

Point spread
+4.5Citadel to cover · 52%
Total points
155.5Under · 54% · projected 151.4
Fair odds
1.62North Florida · Citadel 2.61

Who will win North Florida vs Citadel?

Our model makes North Florida 62% favourites at home against Citadel and projects a 79–75 final.

North Florida have won 1 of their last 3, scoring 61.7 and allowing 88.7 points a game over that stretch. Citadel have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 94.3 and allowing 61.3 points a game over that stretch.

North Florida sit 5th in the ASUN at 1–2, while Citadel sit 2nd in the Southern at 2–1.

On adjusted efficiency, North Florida rate -3.1 and Citadel +6 points per game against an average side, a 9.2-point edge to Citadel. Home court is worth about 12.9 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices North Florida at 62% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, North Florida -4.5 covers 48% of the time on our numbers, and the under 155.5 lands 54% against a projected 151.4 points.

North Florida to win (62%). Projected score: 79–75.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)North Florida61%62%62%1.62
Winner (incl. overtime)Citadel39%38%38%2.61
Point spreadNorth Florida -4.548%49%48%2.07
Point spreadCitadel +4.552%51%52%1.93
Total pointsOver 155.539%50%46%2.19
Total pointsUnder 155.561%50%54%1.84
1st half spreadNorth Florida -1.552%–52%1.92
1st half spreadCitadel +1.548%–48%2.09
1st half total pointsOver 73.549%–49%2.05
1st half total pointsUnder 73.551%–51%1.96

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

North FloridaBefore tip-offCitadel
  • 1–2Season record2–1
  • 0–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 1–2Last 10 games2–1
  • L2Current streakW2
  • 61.7Points per game94.3
  • 88.7Points allowed per game61.3
  • −27.0Average margin+33.0
  • 4 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • −3.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+6.0
  • −1.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+3.1
  • −1.6DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.9
  • +12.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
North Florida0.00.0–0.0−16.326.0–42.30.00.0–0.0−10.635.7–46.3
Citadel0.00.0–0.0+17.745.7–28.00.00.0–0.0+15.448.7–33.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

North Florida

1–2

1–3, 6th in ASUN

Citadel

2–1

3–1, 2nd in Southern

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day