EuroCup Round Recap: Results and Analysis for Wednesday 21 October

A demanding 11-game EuroCup schedule on Wednesday 21 October concluded with home sides dictating terms, collecting victories in eight of the fixtures. The most lopsided outcome took place in Jerusalem, where Hapoel Jerusalem dismantled Rigas Zelli by 36 points in a 100–64 rout. At the other extreme, an overtime battle in Naples produced the day's highest scoring output, as Basket Napoli edged out Tofas 105–101 in a 206-point showdown.

The forecasting model turned in a solid round by correctly forecasting 8 of 11 winners on the day. Road teams managed just three wins across the continent, while several tight fourth-quarter finishes tested the pregame spreads.

EuroCup scores

London Lions 89–72 Cluj-Napoca

Entering the interval with a narrow 40–37 advantage, London Lions took control late to earn an 89–72 away victory over Cluj-Napoca. The decisive separation occurred during the fourth period, where the visiting squad outscored their opponents 25–17 to seal a 17-point margin.

Thomas Kennedy set the standard for the winning side with 16 points. On the other side, Cluj-Napoca relied heavily on Uros Plavsic, who posted 14 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in the loss.

The pregame projection missed the mark, having backed Cluj-Napoca with a 67% win probability and anticipating an 87–82 scoreline. That meant the host side failed to cover their -6.5 spread, while the aggregate total of 161 stayed below the projected 171.5 line.

With both clubs sitting on 2–2 records in Group B, London Lions now claim 3rd position, while Cluj-Napoca sit 6th. Looking ahead, Cluj-Napoca are scheduled away at Frankfurt on Tue 27 Oct, and London Lions host a clash home to Turk Telekom on Wed 28 Oct.

Cluj-Napoca vs London Lions: full box score and prediction

Le Mans 84–66 Cedevita Olimpija

A dominant third quarter proved to be the turning point as Le Mans powered to an 84–66 triumph over Cedevita Olimpija on opponent territory. Up 43–38 at the break, the French visitors overwhelmed the hosts 28–14 in that pivotal third frame to construct an insurmountable 18-point win.

Offensively, Lucas Dufeal anchored Le Mans by producing a team-high 16 points. Cedevita Olimpija found their primary scoring answer in Matthew Hurt, who finished with 12 points.

Cedevita Olimpija had been given a 55% likelihood of victory under an 84–83 projection, making this an upset on the cards. Failing to protect their -1.5 spread, the Slovenian team also contributed to a modest 150-point game that comfortably fell under the 168.5 total.

The outcome lifts Le Mans into 3rd spot in Group A at 2–2, whereas Cedevita Olimpija slide to 8th after dropping to 0–4. For their next fixtures, Cedevita Olimpija will head away at Aris on Wed 28 Oct, with Le Mans traveling away at Boulazac on Sat 24 Oct.

Cedevita Olimpija vs Le Mans: full box score and prediction

Tortona 89–79 San Pablo Burgos

Trailed 45–36 when reaching halftime, Tortona engineered a resilient comeback to defeat San Pablo Burgos 89–79. A relentless fourth quarter guided the turnaround, with the Italian hosts outplaying their guests 31–17 to turn a nine-point deficit into a 10-point victory.

Scoring honors for Tortona went to Giordano Bortolani with 18 points. San Pablo Burgos were spearheaded by D. Steward, who delivered 22 points alongside 4 assists in a losing effort.

Our projection accurately favored Tortona at 63% on an estimated 87–84 result. In delivering the 10-point margin, Tortona covered their -4.5 line, while the final combined mark of 168 points stayed short of the expected 172.5 baseline.

Group A standings now see Tortona climb into 4th with an even 2–2 record, leaving San Pablo Burgos in 6th place at 1–3. Next up, Tortona play home to Basket Napoli on Sun 25 Oct, while San Pablo Burgos venture away at Manresa on Sat 24 Oct.

Tortona vs San Pablo Burgos: full box score and prediction

PAOK 87–78 Ulm

Building a 46–42 cushion by halftime, PAOK held off Ulm to claim an 87–78 victory in front of their home supporters. The home team laid the groundwork for their nine-point victory during a 27–22 second quarter run.

Cedi Osman drove PAOK forward by racking up 21 points on the night. For Ulm, J. Sims kept the German side competitive by delivering 17 points.

The algorithm hit on the straight-up result, having given PAOK an 80% win probability with a predicted 91–82 scoreline. However, PAOK could not overcome the hefty -14.5 line, and the 165 total points stayed well under the 173.5 estimate.

Advancing to 3–1, PAOK establish themselves in 2nd spot in Group D, while Ulm drop into 5th place at 2–2. Upcoming action features PAOK home to AEK Athens on Sat 24 Oct, whereas Ulm travel away at Lietkabelis on Tue 27 Oct.

PAOK vs Ulm: full box score and prediction

Chemnitz 95–67 Slask Wroclaw

Chemnitz unleashed a suffocating defensive performance to blow past Slask Wroclaw 95–67. Holding a 46–40 lead after two quarters, the German side closed the game out emphatically by punishing the visitors 25–7 in the fourth period to forge a 28-point gap.

A balanced masterclass from C. Williams led Chemnitz with 21 points and 5 assists. Slask Wroclaw received a 17-point, 5-rebound contribution from Devin Robinson.

Pre-game calculations were vindicated, having favored Chemnitz at 72% via an 88–82 estimate. Chemnitz easily beat the -7.5 handicap, though the 162 total points fell beneath the 170.5 line.

The triumph keeps Chemnitz in 2nd place in Group C with a 3–1 mark, leaving Slask Wroclaw down in 8th at 1–3. Chemnitz will prepare for an encounter home to JL Bourg on Wed 28 Oct, while Slask Wroclaw will play home to Bydgoszcz on Sat 24 Oct.

Chemnitz vs Slask Wroclaw: full box score and prediction

JL Bourg 90–79 Trento

Sparked by an explosive 34–21 second frame, JL Bourg fended off Trento 90–79 on their home floor. That second-quarter surge helped construct a 53–45 halftime edge that the French club preserved through the final buzzer to win by 11.

Lionel Gaudoux stood tall for JL Bourg, charting 20 points and gathering 7 rebounds. Trento's primary counter came via Jordan Bayehe, who generated 15 points.

The match matched the model's backing of JL Bourg at 69%, which had anticipated an 87–82 outcome. By securing the 11-point victory, JL Bourg cleared their -6.5 spread, while the 169 combined points squeezed just over the 168.5 total.

Group C table positions put JL Bourg in 5th place with a 1–3 record, level on points with Trento who occupy 7th. Next up, JL Bourg host an outing home to Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sat 24 Oct, and Trento head away at Scafati on Sat 24 Oct.

JL Bourg vs Trento: full box score and prediction

Tenerife 104–94 Frankfurt

Facing a 43–31 deficit entering the break, Tenerife exploded in the second half to secure a 104–94 road win against Frankfurt. The visitors turned the contest on its head with a blistering 43–23 third-quarter blitz, reversing course to end up with a 10-point victory.

Kyle Guy was the catalyst for Tenerife, scoring 26 points and dealing 6 assists. Frankfurt stayed in contention behind J. Mintz, who recorded 20 points and distributed 5 assists.

The straight-up call was accurate as Tenerife verified their 67% probability in an anticipated 85–80 away win. Frankfurt failed to stay within the +8.5 spread, and the high-scoring aggregate of 198 points surpassed the 165.5 line.

Following the win, Tenerife claim 1st position in Group B with a 3–1 slate, leaving Frankfurt 7th at 2–2. Up next, Frankfurt will be home to Cluj-Napoca on Tue 27 Oct, while Tenerife are scheduled home to Obradoiro CAB on Sun 25 Oct.

Frankfurt vs Tenerife: full box score and prediction

KK Bosna 86–77 Bahcesehir Kol.

Starting fast with a 21–13 opening quarter, KK Bosna pulled off an 86–77 home victory against Bahcesehir Kol. The home team defended a 36–33 halftime lead throughout the second half to register a nine-point triumph.

S. Pipes JR led KK Bosna with 18 points. For Bahcesehir Kol., Mateusz Ponitka delivered a game-high 20 points in an unsuccessful effort.

The result caused an upset for our model, which had pegged Bahcesehir Kol. at 73% with an 87–80 projection. As a result, KK Bosna beat their +9.5 underdog spread, while the 163 total points fell below the 166.5 mark.

The win moves KK Bosna to 7th in Group D at 1–3, with Bahcesehir Kol. remaining top in 1st spot at 3–1. KK Bosna next travel away at BC Roma on Tue 27 Oct, while Bahcesehir Kol. compete home to Besiktas on Sat 24 Oct.

KK Bosna vs Bahcesehir Kol.: full box score and prediction

Basket Napoli 105–101 Tofas

After establishing a 53–42 advantage at the intermission, Basket Napoli had to endure extra time before claiming a dramatic 105–101 home win over Tofas. Napoli's tone was set by a 29–20 opening frame, though the visitors pushed the matchup into overtime before the hosts sealed the four-point win.

Zac Seljaas shone for Basket Napoli with 28 points and 6 rebounds. Tofas stayed close throughout thanks to T. Jones, who posted a phenomenal 32-point performance.

Napoli justified the model's 71% confidence rating, which had projected an 88–82 score. Yet the narrow finish prevented Basket Napoli from covering the -7.5 spread, while the 206 points pushed past the 173.5 total.

Maintaining an unblemished 4–0 run, Basket Napoli stand 1st in Group C, whereas Tofas remain 3rd at 3–1. Coming up, Basket Napoli will play away at Tortona on Sun 25 Oct, and Tofas will be home to Petkim Spor on Sun 25 Oct.

Basket Napoli vs Tofas: full box score and prediction

Hapoel Jerusalem 100–64 Rigas Zelli

Hapoel Jerusalem commanded proceedings from start to finish in a crushing 100–64 home triumph over Rigas Zelli. Holding a 50–36 margin at the break, the hosts completely dominated the fourth quarter 23–9 to confirm a 36-point margin of victory.

Kenneth Lofton orchestrated the win with 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. Rigas Zelli received a team-best 12 points from R. Sulcs.

The pregame projection had highlighted Hapoel Jerusalem with an 85% win expectancy and an 89–79 outcome. The hosts easily covered their steep -18.5 handicap, though the 164 total points failed to reach the 169.5 benchmark.

Remaining unbeaten at 4–0, Hapoel Jerusalem reside in 2nd place in Group A, while Rigas Zelli sit 5th with a 2–2 record. Jerusalem next play away at Le Mans on Wed 28 Oct, with Rigas Zelli traveling away at San Pablo Burgos on Wed 28 Oct.

Hapoel Jerusalem vs Rigas Zelli: full box score and prediction

Maxima Roma 90–79 Venezia

Tied at 45–45 heading into halftime, Maxima Roma pulled away in the second half to dispatch Venezia 90–79. A tight 19–12 third frame provided the necessary buffer for the Roman hosts to complete an 11-point home win.

Miro Bilan paced Maxima Roma with a 22-point, 8-rebound double-double effort. Venezia were led by Glynn Watson, who tallied 16 points and distributed 4 assists.

In what was essentially rated a coin flip at 52% with an 86–85 projected score, Maxima Roma came out on top. Roma beat their -1.5 spread, while the 169 points scored remained beneath the projected 172.5 mark.

In the Group B picture, Maxima Roma climb to 4th place at 2–2, matching the record of Venezia who sit 2nd. Next, Maxima Roma play home to Udine on Sun 25 Oct, while Venezia host an encounter home to Treviso on Sun 25 Oct.

Maxima Roma vs Venezia: full box score and prediction

How the model did

The model picked 8 of 11 winners on Wednesday 21 October. Against the spread, the home side covered in 6 of 11 games. 3 of 11 games went over our total. For the season it stands at 8 of 11 EuroCup winners (73%). Every graded pick is public.

EuroCup standings after Wednesday 21 October

Full EuroCup standings

More on the EuroCup predictions page. 18+ only; see responsible gambling.