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PAOK vs AEK Athens prediction

HomePAOK3–0, 1st in AwayAEK Athens2–1, 4th in
Tip-off
76%24%
Win probability

Our pick

Strong
PAOK to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
85–78
Margin
+7

Who will win PAOK vs AEK Athens?

The numbers side with PAOK (76%) at home against AEK Athens, with 85–78 the most likely shape of the final score.

PAOK have won 3 of their last 3, scoring 87.3 and allowing 80.7 points a game over that stretch. AEK Athens have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 77.7 and allowing 79.0 points a game over that stretch.

PAOK sit 1st at 3–0, while AEK Athens sit 4th at 2–1.

On adjusted efficiency, PAOK rate +1.7 and AEK Athens -0.7 points per game against an average side, a 2.5-point edge to PAOK. Home court is worth about 3.9 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices PAOK at 77% across 6 bookmakers.

PAOK to win (76%). Projected score: 85–78.

Tale of the tape

PAOKBefore tip-offAEK Athens
  • 3–0Season record2–1
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 3–0Last 10 games2–1
  • W3Current streakW1
  • 87.3Points per game77.7
  • 80.7Points allowed per game79.0
  • +6.6Average margin−1.3
  • 2 daysRest before this game2 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • 29.2Rebounds per game30.0
  • 15.2Assists per game18.8
  • 8.0Three-pointers made per game5.8
  • 36.2Bench points per game30.5
  • +1.7Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.8
  • +1.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.5
  • −0.0DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.3
  • +3.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 4 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
PAOK−0.418.3–18.7+2.322.0–19.7+0.721.7–21.0+4.025.3–21.3
AEK Athens−0.616.7–17.3+0.621.3–20.7−3.016.7–19.7+1.723.0–21.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Cedi OsmanPAOKVSJoseph N.AEK Athens

Leading scorers · averages over the last 4 games

  • 23.0Points12.5
  • 4.3Rebounds6.5
  • 1.3Assists0.5
  • 2.0Three-pointers made0.0
  • 31.7Minutes28.8

Team leaders

PAOKThis seasonAEK Athens

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Cedi OsmanVSJoseph N.
PTS
23.0·12.5
REB
4.3·6.5
AST
1.3·0.5
Starters
Marcus FosterVSLanders Nolley II
PTS
13.2·12.0
REB
3.4·3.3
AST
2.0·1.3
Starters
Trevor HudginsVSWilliams D.
PTS
7.6·9.0
REB
1.2·2.5
AST
2.0·0.0
Starters
Naz Mitrou-LongVSGiannoulis Larentzakis
PTS
7.6·5.8
REB
1.2·2.3
AST
1.4·3.5
Starters
Gray R.VSDimitris Flionis
PTS
5.8·3.5
REB
3.2·0.5
AST
2.2·1.3

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
PAOK

Likely starting five

  1. Gray R.
    Started 5 of last 5
    PPG
    5.8
  2. Cedi Osman
    Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    23.0
  3. Marcus Foster
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    13.2
  4. Trevor Hudgins
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    7.6
  5. Naz Mitrou-Long
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    7.6
Missed the last game
Away
AEK Athens

Likely starting five

  1. Joseph N.
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    12.5
  2. Landers Nolley II
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    12.0
  3. Dimitris Flionis
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    3.5
  4. Williams D.
    Started 2 of last 4
    PPG
    9.0
  5. Giannoulis Larentzakis
    Started 1 of last 4
    PPG
    5.8
Missed the last game
Full lineups and bench

Recent form

PAOK

3–0

3–0, 1st in

  • @ Kolossos Rhodes88–84
  • vs Lefkadas86–73
  • @ Mykonos88–85

AEK Athens

2–1

2–1, 4th in

  • vs Mykonos84–79
  • @ Aris58–88
  • vs Maroussi91–70

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled