Scafati vs Trento prediction

Trento are the pick at 58% to win on the road at Scafati, with a projected score of 84–82.

The model gives Trento a 58% chance of winning in Scafati, and the projected score of 84–82 shows how narrow that edge is. Scafati are 0–4 and 16th, while Trento are 3–1 and 6th, so the table already points in the visitors' direction. The ratings back that up: Trento are +0.7 points per game against an average side on adjusted efficiency, Scafati -4.5, which is a 5.2-point gap before home court is considered.

Scafati's recent form explains much of the gap. They have lost all four of their last four, scoring 76.3 and allowing 92.3 points a game over that stretch, a defensive number that leaves little room for error. Trento have won three of their last four, scoring 83.5 and allowing 80.5 over the same span, so they arrive with both the better record and the better two-way profile.

Home court is worth about 2.7 points in this competition, and that is Scafati's main case. It trims the efficiency gap without erasing it, which is why the model still lands on Trento by a small margin rather than a comfortable one. The market reads the game the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, Trento are priced at 57% across 2 bookmakers, essentially matching the model's 58%.

The projected 84–82 fits that picture. A two-point margin and a high-scoring game mean the result could turn on a single possession, so the lean toward Trento is real but thin. Scafati's home advantage keeps them live, and the numbers suggest this is closer to a coin flip than the 0–4 record alone would imply.

Trento to win (58%), projected score 84–82; it is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.