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Trento vs Virtus Bologna prediction

HomeTrento3–4, 11th in AwayVirtus Bologna6–1, 1st in
Tip-off
35%65%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Virtus Bologna to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
86–90
Margin
+4

Who will win Trento vs Virtus Bologna?

Our model makes Virtus Bologna 65% favourites on the road against Trento and projects a 90–86 final.

Trento have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 78.0 and allowing 82.8 points a game over that stretch. Virtus Bologna have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 97.4 and allowing 88.8 points a game over that stretch.

Trento sit 11th at 3–4, while Virtus Bologna sit 1st at 6–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Trento rate -1.3 and Virtus Bologna +4.2 points per game against an average side, a 5.6-point edge to Virtus Bologna. Home court is worth about 2.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Virtus Bologna at 67% across 9 bookmakers.

Virtus Bologna to win (65%). Projected score: 90–86.

Tale of the tape

TrentoBefore tip-offVirtus Bologna
  • 3–4Season record6–1
  • 1–2Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road3–0
  • 3–4Last 10 games6–1
  • L3Current streakW1
  • 80.4Points per game96.4
  • 83.6Points allowed per game86.0
  • −3.2Average margin+10.4
  • 4 daysRest before this game1 day
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • 34.3Rebounds per game33.0
  • 17.4Assists per game18.2
  • 10.5Three-pointers made per game9.5
  • 41.3Bench points per game51.1
  • −1.3Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+4.2
  • −2.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+3.6
  • +1.4DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.6
  • +2.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 10 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Trento+1.821.7–19.9−2.019.4–21.40.020.1–20.1−3.019.1–22.1
Virtus Bologna+2.324.0–21.7−0.720.7–21.4+0.323.0–22.7+8.026.3–18.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Q. OlivariTrentoVSTrent FrazierGuard · Virtus Bologna

Leading scorers · averages over the last 5 games

  • 16.4Points13.3
  • 4.2Rebounds1.8
  • 4.0Assists3.8
  • 3.0Three-pointers made3.0
  • 30.3Minutes24.5

Team leaders

TrentoThis seasonVirtus Bologna

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (5 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Guards
Charlie BrownVSDerrick Alston Jr.
PTS
12.8·13.0
REB
5.2·1.8
AST
1.6·1.5
Starters
Q. OlivariVSD. Mouhamet
PTS
16.4·5.2
REB
4.2·3.8
AST
4.0·1.2
Cross-matchup
Jordan BayeheVSWendell Moore
PTS
10.5·12.6
REB
5.0·3.4
AST
1.0·1.2
Cross-matchup
D. BrownVSMarcus Carr
PTS
9.4·10.2
REB
2.0·2.4
AST
5.6·4.6
Cross-matchup
J. Medina BouzaVSKevin Kokila
PTS
5.4·7.8
REB
1.4·3.8
AST
0.0·0.8

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Trento

Likely starting five

  1. Q. Olivari
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    16.4
  2. Charlie Brown
    Guard · Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    12.8
  3. D. Brown
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    9.4
  4. J. Medina Bouza
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    5.4
  5. Jordan Bayehe
    Forward · Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    10.5
Away
Virtus Bologna

Likely starting five

  1. Derrick Alston Jr.
    Guard · Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    13.0
  2. D. Mouhamet
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    5.2
  3. Wendell Moore
    Guard · Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    12.6
  4. Marcus Carr
    Guard · Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    10.2
  5. Kevin Kokila
    Center · Started 1 of last 5
    PPG
    7.8
Missed the last game
Full lineups and benchTrento vs Virtus Bologna: player stats and box score
Photo credits (8)

Recent form

Trento

2–3

3–4, 11th in

Virtus Bologna

4–1

6–1, 1st in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day