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Olimpia Milano vs Virtus Bologna prediction

HomeOlimpia Milano3–1, 2nd in AwayVirtus Bologna4–0, 1st in
Tip-off
56%44%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Olimpia Milano to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
87–85
Margin
+2

Who will win Olimpia Milano vs Virtus Bologna?

Olimpia Milano are the pick at home against Virtus Bologna: a 56% win chance and a projected 87–85 score.

Olimpia Milano have won 3 of their last 4, scoring 89.8 and allowing 78.3 points a game over that stretch. Virtus Bologna have won 4 of their last 4, scoring 97.3 and allowing 81.8 points a game over that stretch.

Olimpia Milano sit 2nd at 3–1, while Virtus Bologna sit 1st at 4–0.

On adjusted efficiency, Olimpia Milano rate +4 and Virtus Bologna +4.3 points per game against an average side, a 0.3-point edge to Virtus Bologna. Home court is worth about 2.7 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Olimpia Milano at 55% across 5 bookmakers.

Olimpia Milano to win (56%). Projected score: 87–85. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Tale of the tape

Olimpia MilanoBefore tip-offVirtus Bologna
  • 3–1Season record4–0
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road2–0
  • 3–1Last 10 games4–0
  • W2Current streakW4
  • 89.8Points per game97.3
  • 78.3Points allowed per game81.8
  • +11.5Average margin+15.5
  • 2 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • 30.2Rebounds per game35.3
  • 19.0Assists per game17.7
  • 10.2Three-pointers made per game10.5
  • 40.6Bench points per game44.5
  • +4.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+4.3
  • +1.0AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+3.0
  • +3.0DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.3
  • +2.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 5 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Olimpia Milano−2.520.8–23.3+6.223.5–17.3−0.519.8–20.3+8.325.8–17.5
Virtus Bologna+5.025.8–20.8−2.319.0–21.3+2.524.0–21.5+10.228.5–18.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Garrison MathewsOlimpia MilanoVSDerrick Alston Jr.Virtus Bologna

Leading scorers · averages over the last 5 games

  • 13.4Points13.6
  • 3.0Rebounds2.4
  • 0.8Assists1.0
  • 2.6Three-pointers made2.4
  • 22.7Minutes20.8

Team leaders

Olimpia MilanoThis seasonVirtus Bologna

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (1 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Garrison MathewsVSDerrick Alston Jr.
PTS
13.4·13.6
REB
3.0·2.4
AST
0.8·1.0
Starters
Moses WrightVSMarcus Carr
PTS
13.4·13.5
REB
4.8·2.0
AST
0.2·4.0
Starters
R.J. ColeVSWendell Moore
PTS
11.8·10.3
REB
2.2·3.0
AST
4.0·1.3
Starters
Alec PetersVSD. Mouhamet
PTS
7.4·7.4
REB
3.4·5.0
AST
1.0·0.6
Starters
Devon HallVSKessler Edwards
PTS
7.2·4.3
REB
2.0·5.8
AST
3.6·0.5

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Olimpia Milano

Likely starting five

  1. Devon Hall
    Started 5 of last 5
    PPG
    7.2
  2. Garrison Mathews
    Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    13.4
  3. Alec Peters
    Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    7.4
  4. Moses Wright
    Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    13.4
  5. R.J. Cole
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    11.8
Away
Virtus Bologna

Likely starting five

  1. Derrick Alston Jr.
    Started 5 of last 5
    PPG
    13.6
  2. D. Mouhamet
    Started 5 of last 5
    PPG
    7.4
  3. Wendell Moore
    Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    10.3
  4. Marcus Carr
    Started 4 of last 5
    PPG
    13.5
  5. Kessler Edwards
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    4.3
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (17)

Garrison Mathews: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Derrick Alston Jr.: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0; R.J. Cole: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Ousmane Diop: Francesco Canu, CC BY-SA 4.0; Darius Thompson: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Bobi Klintman: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0; Trent Frazier: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0; Devon Hall: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Alec Peters: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Moses Wright: SneakinDeacon, CC BY-SA 2.0; Leandro Bolmaro: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Marko Guduric: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Jason Burnell: Basketinside il basket a 360°, CC BY-SA 2.0; Marcus Carr: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0; Kessler Edwards: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0; Daniel Hackett: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tommaso Baldasso: User:Zafer, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Olimpia Milano

3–1

3–1, 2nd in

Virtus Bologna

4–0

4–0, 1st in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day