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Slask Wroclaw vs Bydgoszcz prediction

HomeSlask Wroclaw1–2, 14th in AwayBydgoszcz1–2, 12th in
Tip-off
53%47%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Slask Wroclaw to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
86–85
Margin
+1

Who will win Slask Wroclaw vs Bydgoszcz?

Slask Wroclaw are narrow 53% favourites at home against Bydgoszcz, with the model projecting an 86–85 finish.

This is about as tight as a game gets in the model's eyes. Slask Wroclaw hold a 53% win probability at home, and the projected score of 86–85 leaves no room for comfort on either side. The pick exists, but it sits close enough to a coin flip that the lean deserves caution.

Neither side arrives in good form. Slask Wroclaw have won 1 of their last 3 while scoring 77.3 and allowing 87.0 points a game over that stretch; Bydgoszcz have also won 1 of their last 3, but at 91.7 scored and 93.3 allowed. The table is just as level: Slask Wroclaw are 14th at 1–2 and Bydgoszcz 12th at 1–2, separated by position rather than record.

Adjusted efficiency gives the visitors a small argument. Bydgoszcz rate -0.7 points per game against an average side, compared with -1.5 for Slask Wroclaw, a 0.8-point edge to Bydgoszcz. Home court is worth about 1.7 points in this competition, which is what tips the model back toward the hosts. The two factors pull in opposite directions and leave the margin thin.

Slask Wroclaw to win at 53%, with the model projecting an 86–85 final.

Tale of the tape

Slask WroclawBefore tip-offBydgoszcz
  • 1–2Season record1–2
  • 0–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 1–2Last 10 games1–2
  • L1Current streakL2
  • 77.3Points per game91.7
  • 87.0Points allowed per game93.3
  • −9.7Average margin−1.6
  • 2 daysRest before this game7 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days0
  • 30.3Rebounds per game33.3
  • 16.3Assists per game20.3
  • 6.0Three-pointers made per game13.7
  • 27.0Bench points per game31.7
  • −1.5Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.7
  • −1.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.6
  • −0.4DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−2.3
  • +1.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Slask Wroclaw−5.616.7–22.3−3.619.7–23.3−7.016.3–23.3+6.724.7–18.0
Bydgoszcz+2.023.0–21.0−4.724.0–28.7−1.425.3–26.7+2.319.3–17.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Devin RobinsonSlask WroclawVSJ. TaylorBydgoszcz

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 16.5Points22.0
  • 7.3Rebounds5.0
  • 1.8Assists4.3
  • 0.5Three-pointers made2.3
  • 28.4Minutes29.2

Team leaders

Slask WroclawThis seasonBydgoszcz

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Devin RobinsonVSJ. Taylor
PTS
16.5·22.0
REB
7.3·5.0
AST
1.8·4.3
Starters
Paul ScruggsVSJ. Ogundiran
PTS
12.5·12.0
REB
3.3·2.3
AST
3.0·8.3
Starters
A. HickeyVSK. Klaczek
PTS
8.8·11.7
REB
3.3·5.0
AST
5.3·2.3
Starters
I. MooreVSDenzel Andersson
PTS
8.8·9.7
REB
4.0·5.0
AST
0.0·1.3
Starters
John EgbunuVSJ. Thomas
PTS
7.0·7.0
REB
5.0·8.3
AST
0.5·0.3

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Slask Wroclaw

Likely starting five

  1. Devin Robinson
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    16.5
  2. A. Hickey
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    8.8
  3. Paul Scruggs
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    12.5
  4. John Egbunu
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    7.0
  5. I. Moore
    Started 1 of last 4
    PPG
    8.8
Missed the last game
Away
Bydgoszcz

Likely starting five

  1. J. Taylor
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    22.0
  2. Denzel Andersson
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    9.7
  3. J. Ogundiran
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    12.0
  4. J. Thomas
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    7.0
  5. K. Klaczek
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    11.7
Full lineups and bench

Photo credits: Devin Robinson: Rikster2, CC BY-SA 4.0; John Egbunu: Dennis Adair, CC BY-SA 2.0; Jakub Niziol: Dudek1337, CC BY-SA 4.0; Denzel Andersson: Steffen Prößdorf, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Slask Wroclaw

1–2

1–2, 14th in

Bydgoszcz

1–2

1–2, 12th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day