Basketora

Akita vs Shinshu result

HomeAkita0–0, 8th in Eastern ConferenceAwayShinshu0–0, 9th in Western Conference
96–101Final
47%53%
Win probability
Akita vs Shinshu: player stats and box scoreBox score, top scorers and team totals of the game

Our pick

Pick landed
Shinshu to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
86–87
Margin
+1
Result
96–101

Last meeting

Akita102–95Shinshu

Our lines

Point spread
+1.5Akita to cover · 51%
Total points
172.5Over · 51% · projected 171.9
Fair odds
1.89Shinshu · Akita 2.13

Who will win Akita vs Shinshu?

Shinshu are the narrow pick at 53% to win on the road against Akita, with a projected score of 87–86.

The model leans to Shinshu, but only just: 53% is barely better than a coin flip, and the projected score of 87–86 says the same thing. The ratings explain the lean. On adjusted efficiency Shinshu are -1.3 points per game against an average side and Akita are -3.4, a 2.1-point edge to Shinshu. Home court is worth about 1.1 points in this competition, which trims that edge without erasing it.

Recent form points the same way. Shinshu have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 82.8 and allowing 81.6 over that stretch, so they have been roughly level with their opponents. Akita have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 90.4 but allowing 95.8, a defensive record that leaves them chasing games. The table is less informative: both teams sit at 0–0, Akita 8th in the Eastern Conference and Shinshu 9th in the Western Conference.

The one recent meeting went Akita's way, 102–95 on 2026-10-17, and that head-to-head record reads Akita 1, Shinshu 0. It is a single game, and it sits awkwardly against the efficiency numbers, but it is the only direct evidence available. The market's view of the winner is close to the model's: Shinshu are priced as slight favourites, which fits a game the numbers expect to be decided by a possession or two.

Akita's case rests on home court and on the memory of that 102–95 result, plus a scoring rate of 90.4 over their last five that shows they can put points on the board. The problem is the 95.8 they allow over the same stretch, and Shinshu's more balanced 82.8 and 81.6 look better suited to a tight finish. With the efficiency gap at 2.1 points and home court at about 1.1, the margin between these teams is thin enough that the lean deserves caution.

The projected score of 87–86 puts Shinshu a single point clear, which is short of the Shinshu -1.5 spread, so the model does not support laying the points. The projected total of 172.1 sits just under the 172.5 line, leaving the over and under close to a split. With Shinshu at 53% to win, the moneyline lean is small and the spread and total offer no clear edge.

Shinshu to win at 53%, with a projected score of 87–86.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Akita46%47%47%2.13
Winner (incl. overtime)Shinshu54%53%53%1.89
Point spreadAkita +1.551%50%51%1.98
Point spreadShinshu -1.549%50%49%2.02
Total pointsOver 172.549%52%51%1.97
Total pointsUnder 172.551%48%49%2.03

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

AkitaBefore tip-offShinshu
  • 4–10Season record5–9
  • 2–3Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–5
  • 3–7Last 10 games3–7
  • L4Current streakW3
  • 81.7Points per game83.2
  • 89.3Points allowed per game85.9
  • −7.6Average margin−2.7
  • 1 dayRest before this game6 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • 30.7Rebounds per game35.3
  • 20.0Assists per game18.1
  • 12.8Three-pointers made per game10.1
  • 39.0Bench points per game23.0
  • −3.5Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.3
  • −0.2AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.3
  • −3.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.0
  • +0.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 6 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Akita−1.522.7–24.2−1.120.4–21.5−0.722.9–23.6−1.221.5–22.7
Shinshu−1.819.1–20.9−0.321.7–22.0−0.119.2–19.3−1.821.4–23.2

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Top performers

M. SmithAkitaVST. FurukawaShinshu

Leading scorers in this game

  • 35.0Points21.0
  • 7.0Rebounds1.0
  • 11.0Assists0.0
  • 2.0Three-pointers made5.0
  • 34.5Minutes26.9

Game leaders

AkitaThis gameShinshu

Key battles

Akita vs Shinshu: player stats and box scoreLineups: who played

Recent form

Akita

1–4

0–0, 8th in Eastern Conference

Shinshu

3–2

0–0, 9th in Western Conference

Head to head

  • Akita 102–95 Shinshu

Other games that day