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UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State prediction

HomeUTSA Roadrunners2–1, 6th in American ConferenceAwayTexas State4–0, 3rd in Pacific-12
Tip-off
49%51%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Texas State to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
74–75
Margin
+1

Who will win UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State?

The numbers side with Texas State (51%) on the road against UTSA Roadrunners, with 75–74 the most likely shape of the final score.

UTSA Roadrunners have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 76.7 and allowing 74.0 points a game over that stretch. Texas State have won 4 of their last 4, scoring 89.8 and allowing 62.8 points a game over that stretch.

UTSA Roadrunners sit 6th in the American Conference at 2–1, while Texas State sit 3rd in the Pacific-12 at 4–0.

On adjusted efficiency, UTSA Roadrunners rate +1.8 and Texas State +2.1 points per game against an average side, a 0.3-point edge to Texas State. Home court is worth about 12 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Texas State at 65% across 6 bookmakers.

Texas State to win (51%). Projected score: 75–74. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Tale of the tape

UTSA RoadrunnersBefore tip-offTexas State
  • 2–1Season record4–0
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–0
  • 2–1Last 10 games4–0
  • W2Current streakW4
  • 76.7Points per game89.8
  • 74.0Points allowed per game62.8
  • +2.7Average margin+27.0
  • 3 daysRest before this game1 day
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • +1.8Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+2.1
  • +0.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.5
  • +1.0DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.6
  • +12.0Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
UTSA Roadrunners0.00.0–0.0−1.033.0–34.00.00.0–0.0+3.743.7–40.0
Texas State0.00.0–0.0+13.043.3–30.30.00.0–0.0+14.046.5–32.5

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

UTSA Roadrunners

2–1

2–1, 6th in American Conference

Texas State

4–0

4–0, 3rd in Pacific-12

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day