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Texas State vs Southern Miss result

HomeTexas State4–0, 3rd in Pacific-12AwaySouthern Miss2–2, 4th in Sun Belt
85–65Final
85%15%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Texas State to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
80–66
Margin
+14
Result
85–65

Our lines

Point spread
−11.5Texas State to cover · 55%
Total points
142.5Over · 57% · projected 148.6
Fair odds
1.18Texas State · Southern Miss 6.71

Who will win Texas State vs Southern Miss?

The numbers side with Texas State (85%) at home against Southern Miss, with 80–66 the most likely shape of the final score.

Texas State have won 3 of their last 3, scoring 91.3 and allowing 62.0 points a game over that stretch. Southern Miss have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 74.3 and allowing 66.0 points a game over that stretch.

Texas State sit 3rd in the Pacific-12 at 3–0, while Southern Miss sit 3rd in the Sun Belt at 2–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Texas State rate +1.7 and Southern Miss -2.2 points per game against an average side, a 3.9-point edge to Texas State. Home court is worth about 13.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Texas State at 83% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Texas State -11.5 covers 55% of the time on our numbers, and the over 142.5 lands 57% against a projected 148.6 points.

Texas State to win (85%). Projected score: 80–66.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Texas State90%83%85%1.18
Winner (incl. overtime)Southern Miss10%17%15%6.71
Point spreadTexas State -11.567%47%55%1.82
Point spreadSouthern Miss +11.533%53%45%2.22
Total pointsOver 142.565%51%57%1.77
Total pointsUnder 142.535%49%43%2.30
1st half spreadTexas State -7.548%–48%2.09
1st half spreadSouthern Miss +7.552%–52%1.92
1st half total pointsOver 69.548%–48%2.08
1st half total pointsUnder 69.552%–52%1.93

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Texas StateBefore tip-offSouthern Miss
  • 3–0Season record2–1
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 3–0Last 10 games2–1
  • W3Current streakW1
  • 91.3Points per game74.3
  • 62.0Points allowed per game66.0
  • +29.3Average margin+8.3
  • 2 daysRest before this game1 day
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • +1.7Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−2.2
  • −0.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.9
  • +2.5DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.3
  • +13.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Texas State0.00.0–0.0+15.043.0–28.00.00.0–0.0+14.348.3–34.0
Southern Miss0.00.0–0.0+2.635.3–32.70.00.0–0.0+4.334.0–29.7

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Texas State

3–0

4–0, 3rd in Pacific-12

Southern Miss

2–1

2–2, 4th in Sun Belt

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day