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Middle Tenn. St. vs Southeast Missouri State result

HomeMiddle Tenn. St.3–1, 5th in Conference USAAwaySoutheast Missouri State2–2, 3rd in Ohio Valley
88–75Final
69%31%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Middle Tenn. St. to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
77–70
Margin
+7
Result
88–75

Our lines

Point spread
−5.5Middle Tenn. St. to cover · 55%
Total points
145.5Over · 55% · projected 149.9
Fair odds
1.44Middle Tenn. St. · Southeast Missouri State 3.26

Who will win Middle Tenn. St. vs Southeast Missouri State?

Middle Tenn. St. are the pick at home against Southeast Missouri State: a 69% win chance and a projected 77–70 score.

Middle Tenn. St. have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 78.3 and allowing 76.7 points a game over that stretch. Southeast Missouri State have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 81.3 and allowing 74.0 points a game over that stretch.

Middle Tenn. St. sit 6th in the Conference USA at 2–1, while Southeast Missouri State sit 2nd in the Ohio Valley at 2–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Middle Tenn. St. rate -3.1 and Southeast Missouri State -0.1 points per game against an average side, a 3-point edge to Southeast Missouri State. Home court is worth about 13.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Middle Tenn. St. at 66% across 7 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Middle Tenn. St. -5.5 covers 55% of the time on our numbers, and the over 145.5 lands 55% against a projected 149.8 points.

Middle Tenn. St. to win (69%). Projected score: 77–70.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Middle Tenn. St.78%66%69%1.44
Winner (incl. overtime)Southeast Missouri State22%34%31%3.26
Point spreadMiddle Tenn. St. -5.564%49%55%1.80
Point spreadSoutheast Missouri State +5.536%51%45%2.24
Total pointsOver 145.561%52%55%1.81
Total pointsUnder 145.539%49%45%2.24
1st half spreadMiddle Tenn. St. -3.550%–50%2.02
1st half spreadSoutheast Missouri State +3.550%–50%1.98
1st half total pointsOver 70.549%–49%2.04
1st half total pointsUnder 70.551%–51%1.96

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Middle Tenn. St.Before tip-offSoutheast Missouri State
  • 2–1Season record2–1
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 2–1Last 10 games2–1
  • W1Current streakL1
  • 78.3Points per game81.3
  • 76.7Points allowed per game74.0
  • +1.6Average margin+7.3
  • 2 daysRest before this game4 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • −3.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.1
  • −2.9AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.4
  • −0.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.6
  • +13.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Middle Tenn. St.0.00.0–0.0+1.731.0–29.30.00.0–0.00.047.3–47.3
Southeast Missouri State0.00.0–0.0+0.738.0–37.30.00.0–0.0+6.643.3–36.7

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Middle Tenn. St.

2–1

3–1, 5th in Conference USA

Southeast Missouri State

2–1

2–2, 3rd in Ohio Valley

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day