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Middle Tenn. St. vs Evansville result

HomeMiddle Tenn. St.3–1, 5th in Conference USAAwayEvansville2–2, 8th in Missouri Valley
73–68Final
74%26%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Middle Tenn. St. to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
78–68
Margin
+10
Result
73–68

Our lines

Point spread
−7Middle Tenn. St. to cover · 55%
Total points
144.5Over · 53% · projected 148.7
Fair odds
1.35Middle Tenn. St. · Evansville 3.83

Who will win Middle Tenn. St. vs Evansville?

Middle Tenn. St. are the pick at home against Evansville: a 74% win chance and a projected 78–68 score.

Middle Tenn. St. have won 1 of their last 2, scoring 81.0 and allowing 81.0 points a game over that stretch. Evansville have won 2 of their last 2, scoring 79.0 and allowing 73.0 points a game over that stretch.

Middle Tenn. St. sit 9th in the Conference USA at 1–1, while Evansville sit 6th in the Missouri Valley at 2–0.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Middle Tenn. St. at 74% across 3 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Middle Tenn. St. -7 covers 55% of the time on our numbers, and the over 144.5 lands 53% against a projected 148.7 points.

Middle Tenn. St. to win (74%). Projected score: 78–68.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Middle Tenn. St.75%74%74%1.35
Winner (incl. overtime)Evansville25%26%26%3.83
Point spreadMiddle Tenn. St. -760%51%55%1.83
Point spreadEvansville +740%49%45%2.21
Total pointsOver 144.560%49%53%1.87
Total pointsUnder 144.540%51%47%2.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Middle Tenn. St.Before tip-offEvansville
  • 1–1Season record2–0
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–0
  • 1–1Last 10 games2–0
  • L1Current streakW2
  • 81.0Points per game79.0
  • 81.0Points allowed per game73.0
  • 0.0Average margin+6.0
  • 3 daysRest before this game2 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OT
Middle Tenn. St.0.00.0–0.0−1.033.0–34.00.00.0–0.0+1.048.0–47.0–
Evansville0.00.0–0.0−6.532.0–38.50.00.0–0.0+11.542.5–31.0+2.09.0–7.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Middle Tenn. St.

1–1

3–1, 5th in Conference USA

Evansville

2–0

2–2, 8th in Missouri Valley

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day