Barangay Ginebra San Miguel vs San Miguel Beermen prediction
Our pick
LeanPrediction updated
- Predicted score
- 104–109
- Margin
- +5
Who will win Barangay Ginebra San Miguel vs San Miguel Beermen?
San Miguel Beermen are the pick on the road against Barangay Ginebra San Miguel, with a 63% win probability and a projected 109–104 score.
Form points in one direction here. San Miguel Beermen have won 4 of their last 5, and their 128.4 points per game over that stretch dwarf the 103.4 Barangay Ginebra San Miguel have managed. Ginebra's 3-2 record in the same window came with a far smaller scoring margin, and the gap between the two offenses is the loudest signal in the data.
The table tells a similar story. San Miguel Beermen are 9–3 and second in Group A, while Barangay Ginebra San Miguel are 5–5 and third in Group B. Ginebra's home court is real but limited: it is worth about 0.9 points in this competition, not enough to close a gap built on season-long results.
Adjusted efficiency is where the case becomes hard to argue with. San Miguel Beermen rate +6.2 points per game against an average side, Barangay Ginebra San Miguel +0.9, a 5.3-point edge. Even after crediting Ginebra for home court, the ratings still favour the visitors, which is why the model lands on San Miguel Beermen at 63% and a 109–104 scoreline.
Pick San Miguel Beermen to win at 63%, with a projected score of 109–104.
Tale of the tape
- 5–5Season record9–3
- 3–3Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road4–3
- 5–5Last 10 games7–3
- W2Current streakW2
- 96.6Points per game121.3
- 94.4Points allowed per game108.6
- +2.2Average margin+12.7
- 3 daysRest before this game5 days
- 1Games in the last 7 days1
- +0.9Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+6.2
- −4.4AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+6.0
- +5.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.2
- +0.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–
Quarter by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barangay Ginebra San Miguel | +2.126.5–24.4 | +2.325.4–23.1 | 0.023.1–23.1 | −2.221.6–23.8 |
| San Miguel Beermen | +1.428.7–27.3 | +3.231.3–28.1 | +6.033.4–27.4 | +3.227.4–24.2 |
Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.
Recent form
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
3–25–5, 3rd in Group B
- vs Blackwater Bossing101–96
- vs Phoenix Fuelmasters106–89
- @ Magnolia Hotshots93–112
- vs Rain or Shine Elasto Painters129–111
- @ Meralco Bolts88–97
San Miguel Beermen
4–19–3, 2nd in Group A
- vs NLEX Road Warriors135–133
- @ Terrafirma Dyip135–105
- @ TNT Tropang 5G98–116
- @ Titan Ultra Giant Risers143–113
- @ Macau Black Bears131–79
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
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