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Maryland vs Virginia result

HomeMaryland1–2, 18th in Big TenAwayVirginia5–0, 1st in Atlantic Coast
83–87Final
46%54%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Virginia to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
76–77
Margin
+1
Result
83–87

Our lines

Point spread
+5.5Maryland to cover · 64%
Total points
152.5Over · 52% · projected 153.8
Fair odds
1.84Virginia · Maryland 2.19

Who will win Maryland vs Virginia?

Virginia are the pick on the road against Maryland: a 54% win chance and a projected 77–76 score.

Maryland have won 1 of their last 2, scoring 85.0 and allowing 76.5 points a game over that stretch. Virginia have won 4 of their last 4, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.3 points a game over that stretch.

Maryland sit 17th in the Big Ten at 1–1, while Virginia sit 1st in the Atlantic Coast at 4–0.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Virginia at 68% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Virginia -5.5 covers 36% of the time on our numbers, and the over 152.5 lands 52% against a projected 153.8 points.

Virginia to win (54%). Projected score: 77–76. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Maryland77%32%46%2.19
Winner (incl. overtime)Virginia23%68%54%1.84
Point spreadMaryland +5.587%49%64%1.55
Point spreadVirginia -5.513%51%36%2.81
Total pointsOver 152.553%52%52%1.91
Total pointsUnder 152.547%48%48%2.10
1st half spreadMaryland +0.549%–49%2.04
1st half spreadVirginia -0.551%–51%1.96
1st half total pointsOver 73.548%–48%2.08
1st half total pointsUnder 73.552%–52%1.92

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

MarylandBefore tip-offVirginia
  • 1–1Season record4–0
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–0
  • 1–1Last 10 games4–0
  • L1Current streakW4
  • 85.0Points per game93.0
  • 76.5Points allowed per game66.3
  • +8.5Average margin+26.7
  • 5 daysRest before this game2 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Maryland0.00.0–0.0−1.036.0–37.00.00.0–0.0+9.549.0–39.5
Virginia0.00.0–0.0+18.047.0–29.00.00.0–0.0+8.746.0–37.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Maryland

1–1

1–2, 18th in Big Ten

Virginia

4–0

5–0, 1st in Atlantic Coast

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day