Basketora

Virginia vs Arkansas result

HomeVirginia5–0, 1st in Atlantic CoastAwayArkansas3–1, 12th in Southeastern
91–72Final
62%38%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Virginia to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
84–79
Margin
+5
Result
91–72

Our lines

Point spread
−3.5Virginia to cover · 53%
Total points
162.5Over · 51% · projected 164.6
Fair odds
1.62Virginia · Arkansas 2.62

Who will win Virginia vs Arkansas?

Our model makes Virginia 62% favourites at home against Arkansas and projects a 84–79 final.

Virginia have won 2 of their last 2, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.0 points a game over that stretch. Arkansas have won 1 of their last 1, scoring 106.0 and allowing 61.0 points a game over that stretch.

Virginia sit 7th in the Atlantic Coast at 2–0, while Arkansas sit 7th in the Southeastern at 1–0.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Virginia at 60% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Virginia -3.5 covers 53% of the time on our numbers, and the over 162.5 lands 51% against a projected 164.6 points.

Virginia to win (62%). Projected score: 84–79.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Virginia67%60%62%1.62
Winner (incl. overtime)Arkansas33%40%38%2.62
Point spreadVirginia -3.559%49%53%1.88
Point spreadArkansas +3.541%51%47%2.13
Total pointsOver 162.555%49%51%1.95
Total pointsUnder 162.545%51%49%2.05

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

VirginiaBefore tip-offArkansas
  • 2–0Season record1–0
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–0
  • 2–0Last 10 games1–0
  • W2Current streakW1
  • 93.0Points per game106.0
  • 66.0Points allowed per game61.0
  • +27.0Average margin+45.0
  • 1 dayRest before this game4 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Virginia0.00.0–0.0+15.544.5–29.00.00.0–0.0+11.548.5–37.0
Arkansas0.00.0–0.0+19.047.0–28.00.00.0–0.0+26.059.0–33.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Virginia

2–0

5–0, 1st in Atlantic Coast

Arkansas

1–0

3–1, 12th in Southeastern

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day