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UMBC Retrievers vs Iona prediction

HomeUMBC Retrievers2–3, 6th in America EastAwayIona2–3, 7th in Metro Atlantic Athletic
Tip-off
81%19%
Win probability

Our pick

Strong
UMBC Retrievers to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
78–66
Margin
+12

Who will win UMBC Retrievers vs Iona?

UMBC Retrievers are the pick at home against Iona, with an 81% win probability and a projected 78–66 score.

UMBC Retrievers and Iona arrive in similar form, each having won 2 of their last 5 games. UMBC Retrievers have scored 70.4 points per game and allowed 73.8 over that stretch, while Iona have put up 64.8 and conceded 69.6. Neither side has separated itself recently, but the home team's scoring average is notably higher.

In the standings, UMBC Retrievers are 5th in the America East at 2–2, while Iona are 6th in the Metro Atlantic Athletic at 2–3. The difference in conference records is slight, yet it reflects a modest edge for the Retrievers in their own league. Iona's extra loss places them a notch lower in their respective table.

Adjusted efficiency ratings give Iona a tiny 0.3-point advantage, with UMBC Retrievers at -1.2 and Iona at -0.9 points per game against an average side. That gap is almost negligible, and it is dwarfed by the value of home court, which is worth about 12.2 points in this competition. The market's 81% win probability for UMBC Retrievers aligns with that home-court boost, making the Retrievers clear favourites despite the near-even efficiency numbers.

UMBC Retrievers to win (81%) with a projected score of 78–66.

Tale of the tape

UMBC RetrieversBefore tip-offIona
  • 2–3Season record2–3
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–3
  • 2–3Last 10 games2–3
  • L1Current streakL3
  • 70.4Points per game64.8
  • 73.8Points allowed per game69.6
  • −3.4Average margin−4.8
  • 1 dayRest before this game2 days
  • 3Games in the last 7 days2
  • −1.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.9
  • −1.3AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.9
  • +0.1DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+2.0
  • +12.0Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
UMBC Retrievers0.00.0–0.0+0.234.4–34.20.00.0–0.0−3.636.0–39.6
Iona0.00.0–0.0−5.428.0–33.40.00.0–0.0+1.235.2–34.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

UMBC Retrievers

2–3

2–3, 6th in America East

Iona

2–3

2–3, 7th in Metro Atlantic Athletic

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

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