Detroit vs Toledo result
Our pick
Pick landedPrediction updated
- Predicted score
- 74–78
- Margin
- +4
- Result
- 72–85
Our lines
Who will win Detroit vs Toledo?
Toledo are the pick on the road against Detroit: a 62% win chance and a projected 78–74 score.
Detroit have won 0 of their last 2, scoring 43.5 and allowing 96.5 points a game over that stretch. Toledo have won 1 of their last 4, scoring 70.0 and allowing 78.5 points a game over that stretch.
Detroit sit 11th in the Horizon League at 0–2, while Toledo sit 12th in the Mid-American at 1–3.
The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Toledo at 82% across 7 bookmakers.
Against the market lines, Toledo -10.5 covers 32% of the time on our numbers, and the under 153.5 lands 53% against a projected 149.7 points.
Toledo to win (62%). Projected score: 78–74.
Markets
| Market | Selection | Model | Market | Final | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner (incl. overtime) | Detroit | 83% | 18% | 38% | 2.66 |
| Winner (incl. overtime) | Toledo | 17% | 82% | 62% | 1.60 |
| Point spread | Detroit +10.5 | 96% | 50% | 68% | 1.46 |
| Point spread | Toledo -10.5 | 4% | 50% | 32% | 3.15 |
| Total points | Over 153.5 | 40% | 51% | 47% | 2.14 |
| Total points | Under 153.5 | 60% | 49% | 53% | 1.87 |
| 1st half spread | Detroit +2.5 | 52% | – | 52% | 1.93 |
| 1st half spread | Toledo -2.5 | 48% | – | 48% | 2.08 |
| 1st half total points | Over 72.5 | 50% | – | 50% | 2.00 |
| 1st half total points | Under 72.5 | 50% | – | 50% | 2.00 |
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Tale of the tape
- 0–2Season record1–3
- 0–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–2
- 0–2Last 10 games1–3
- L2Current streakL1
- 43.5Points per game70.0
- 96.5Points allowed per game78.5
- −53.0Average margin−8.5
- 3 daysRest before this game3 days
- 1Games in the last 7 days1
Quarter by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit | 0.00.0–0.0 | −22.519.5–42.0 | 0.00.0–0.0 | −30.524.0–54.5 |
| Toledo | 0.00.0–0.0 | −10.029.5–39.5 | 0.00.0–0.0 | +1.540.5–39.0 |
Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.
Recent form
Toledo
1–32–3, 9th in Mid-American
- vs Wright State68–76
- @ Marshall81–76
- @ Michigan State61–91
- @ Arkansas State70–71
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
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