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Bellarmine vs Northern Illinois result

HomeBellarmine1–4, 7th in ASUNAwayNorthern Illinois3–2, 4th in Horizon League
64–72Final
56%44%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed
Bellarmine to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
76–74
Margin
+2
Result
64–72

Our lines

Point spread
+1.5Bellarmine to cover · 62%
Total points
149.5Over · 53% · projected 152.7
Fair odds
1.79Bellarmine · Northern Illinois 2.26

Who will win Bellarmine vs Northern Illinois?

The numbers side with Bellarmine (56%) at home against Northern Illinois, with 76–74 the most likely shape of the final score.

Bellarmine have won 1 of their last 4, scoring 72.0 and allowing 86.8 points a game over that stretch. Northern Illinois have won 2 of their last 4, scoring 81.3 and allowing 75.5 points a game over that stretch.

Bellarmine sit 7th in the ASUN at 1–3, while Northern Illinois sit 4th in the Horizon League at 2–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Bellarmine rate -3.2 and Northern Illinois +0.9 points per game against an average side, a 4.2-point edge to Northern Illinois. Home court is worth about 12.9 points in this competition.

The market leans the other way, pricing Northern Illinois at 52%; our edge on Bellarmine is large enough to stand.

Against the market lines, Bellarmine +1.5 covers 62% of the time on our numbers, and the over 149.5 lands 53% against a projected 152.7 points.

Bellarmine to win (56%). Projected score: 76–74. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Bellarmine75%48%56%1.79
Winner (incl. overtime)Northern Illinois25%52%44%2.26
Point spreadBellarmine +1.578%50%62%1.63
Point spreadNorthern Illinois -1.522%50%38%2.60
Total pointsOver 149.558%49%53%1.90
Total pointsUnder 149.542%51%47%2.12
1st half spreadBellarmine -0.552%–52%1.92
1st half spreadNorthern Illinois +0.548%–48%2.09
1st half total pointsOver 71.551%–51%1.97
1st half total pointsUnder 71.549%–49%2.03

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

BellarmineBefore tip-offNorthern Illinois
  • 1–3Season record2–2
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–2
  • 1–3Last 10 games2–2
  • W1Current streakW2
  • 72.0Points per game81.3
  • 86.8Points allowed per game75.5
  • −14.8Average margin+5.8
  • 2 daysRest before this game2 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days2
  • −3.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+0.9
  • −1.7AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.3
  • −1.5DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.4
  • +12.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Bellarmine0.00.0–0.0−6.532.3–38.80.00.0–0.0−8.239.8–48.0
Northern Illinois0.00.0–0.0−2.735.3–38.00.00.0–0.0+7.242.5–35.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Bellarmine

1–3

1–4, 7th in ASUN

Northern Illinois

2–2

3–2, 4th in Horizon League

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day