Corinthians Paulista vs Osasco result

HomeCorinthians Paulista3–4, 10th in AwayOsasco1–5, 16th in

84–74Final

80%20%

Win probability

Corinthians Paulista vs Osasco: player stats and box scoreBox score, top scorers and team totals of the game

Next meeting: Feb 18. This page switches to its preview the day before the game.Next meetings

Our pick

Pick landed

Corinthians Paulista to win

Prediction updated Sat, Nov 14, 04:51 PM UTC

Predicted score: 86–77
Margin: +9
Result: 84–74

Our lines

Point spread

+11.5Osasco to cover · 56%

Total points

164.5Under · 54% · projected 160.0

Fair odds

1.25Corinthians Paulista · Osasco 5.00

Who will win Corinthians Paulista vs Osasco?

Our model makes Corinthians Paulista 80% favourites at home against Osasco and projects a 86–77 final.

Corinthians Paulista have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 80.6 and allowing 79.0 points a game over that stretch. Osasco have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 78.6 and allowing 87.4 points a game over that stretch.

Corinthians Paulista sit 13th at 2–4, while Osasco sit 16th at 1–4.

On adjusted efficiency, Corinthians Paulista rate +0.6 and Osasco -3.1 points per game against an average side, a 3.7-point edge to Corinthians Paulista. Home court is worth about 2.9 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Corinthians Paulista at 84% across 7 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Corinthians Paulista -11.5 covers 44% of the time on our numbers, and the under 164.5 lands 54% against a projected 160 points.

Corinthians Paulista to win (80%). Projected score: 86–77.

Markets

Market	Selection	Model	Market	Final	Fair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)	Corinthians Paulista	71%	84%	80%	1.25
Winner (incl. overtime)	Osasco	29%	16%	20%	5.00
Point spread	Corinthians Paulista -11.5	34%	51%	44%	2.25
Point spread	Osasco +11.5	66%	49%	56%	1.80
Total points	Over 164.5	37%	51%	46%	2.19
Total points	Under 164.5	63%	49%	54%	1.84
1st half spread	Corinthians Paulista -4.5	52%	–	52%	1.91
1st half spread	Osasco +4.5	48%	–	48%	2.09
1st half total points	Over 81.5	50%	–	50%	1.99
1st half total points	Under 81.5	50%	–	50%	2.01

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Corinthians PaulistaBefore tip-offOsasco

2–4Season record1–4
1–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–1
2–4Last 10 games1–4
L1Current streakL3
79.3Points per game78.6
79.8Points allowed per game87.4
−0.5Average margin−8.8
1 dayRest before this game1 day
2Games in the last 7 days1
31.8Rebounds per game31.0
19.5Assists per game13.2
10.7Three-pointers made per game6.2
49.2Bench points per game34.8
+0.6Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−3.1
+1.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.2
−0.5DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−3.4
+2.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 5 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Corinthians Paulista	+3.722.5–18.8	−1.416.8–18.2	−0.622.2–22.8	−2.217.8–20.0
Osasco	−1.422.8–24.2	−3.218.0–21.2	−7.416.6–24.0	+3.221.2–18.0