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Houston Rockets vs Atlanta Hawks prediction

HomeHouston Rockets2–1, 5th in Western ConferenceAwayAtlanta Hawks4–1, 2nd in Eastern Conference
Tip-off
61%39%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Houston Rockets to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
117–114
Margin
+3

Last meeting

Atlanta Hawks114–121Houston Rockets
Our pick: Atlanta Hawks 56%Pick missed

Who will win Houston Rockets vs Atlanta Hawks?

Our model makes Houston Rockets 61% favourites at home against Atlanta Hawks and projects a 117–114 final.

Houston Rockets have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 118.8 and allowing 111.0 points a game over that stretch. Atlanta Hawks have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 124.4 and allowing 109.6 points a game over that stretch.

Houston Rockets sit 5th in the Western Conference at 2–1, while Atlanta Hawks sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference at 4–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Houston Rockets rate +3.3 and Atlanta Hawks +4.3 points per game against an average side, a 1-point edge to Atlanta Hawks. Home court is worth about 1.5 points in this competition.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Houston Rockets 1, Atlanta Hawks 0); the latest finished Atlanta Hawks 114–121 Houston Rockets on 2026-10-25.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Houston Rockets at 65% across 6 bookmakers.

Houston Rockets to win (61%). Projected score: 117–114.

Tale of the tape

Houston RocketsBefore tip-offAtlanta Hawks
  • 3–0Season record2–1
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road2–0
  • 3–0Last 10 games2–1
  • W3Current streakL1
  • 121.0Points per game124.7
  • 111.3Points allowed per game109.0
  • +9.7Average margin+15.7
  • 1 dayRest before this game1 day
  • 3Games in the last 7 days3
  • 43.0Rebounds per game44.0
  • 28.0Assists per game33.3
  • 13.3Three-pointers made per game15.0
  • 26.3Bench points per game40.7
  • +3.3Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+4.3
  • +1.9AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+3.0
  • +1.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.2
  • +1.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Houston Rockets+5.031.3–26.3+10.032.0–22.0−2.029.0–31.0−3.328.7–32.0
Atlanta Hawks+1.329.0–27.7+6.733.7–27.0−0.329.7–30.0+8.032.3–24.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Kevin DurantForward · Houston RocketsVSJalen JohnsonForward · Atlanta Hawks

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 24.0Points21.7
  • 5.7Rebounds10.0
  • 3.7Assists10.0
  • 2.3Three-pointers made0.7
  • 37.0Minutes31.5

Team leaders

Houston RocketsThis seasonAtlanta Hawks

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (3 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Forwards
Kevin DurantVSJalen Johnson
PTS
24.0·21.7
REB
5.7·10.0
AST
3.7·10.0
Forwards
Amen ThompsonVSOnyeka Okongwu
PTS
17.7·8.7
REB
10.3·5.0
AST
4.7·3.3
Cross-matchup
Alperen SengunVSNickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
23.0·21.0
REB
9.0·4.0
AST
6.3·4.0
Cross-matchup
Jabari Smith Jr.VSDyson Daniels
PTS
17.0·16.3
REB
5.0·7.0
AST
1.7·3.3
Cross-matchup
R. SheppardVSC.J. McCollum
PTS
11.0·16.3
REB
4.0·1.7
AST
5.5·2.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Houston Rockets

Likely starting five

  1. Kevin Durant
    Forward · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    24.0
  2. Amen Thompson
    Forward · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    17.7
  3. Jabari Smith Jr.
    Forward · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    17.0
  4. Alperen Sengun
    Center · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    23.0
  5. R. Sheppard
    Started 1 of last 3
    PPG
    11.0
Missed the last game
Away
Atlanta Hawks

Likely starting five

  1. Jalen Johnson
    Forward · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    21.7
  2. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
    Guard · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    21.0
  3. Dyson Daniels
    Guard · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    16.3
  4. Onyeka Okongwu
    Forward · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    8.7
  5. C.J. McCollum
    Guard · Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    16.3
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages

Recent form

Houston Rockets

4–1

2–1, 5th in Western Conference

Atlanta Hawks

4–1

4–1, 2nd in Eastern Conference

Head to head

  • Atlanta Hawks 114–121 Houston RocketsPick missed

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