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UConn vs Ohio State result

HomeUConn4–0, 2nd in Big EastAwayOhio State2–2, 17th in Big Ten
84–68Final
86%14%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
UConn to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
82–67
Margin
+15
Result
84–68

Our lines

Point spread
−10.5UConn to cover · 60%
Total points
147.5Over · 53% · projected 151.0
Fair odds
1.17UConn · Ohio State 6.96

Who will win UConn vs Ohio State?

UConn are the pick at home against Ohio State: an 86% win chance and a projected 82–67 score.

UConn have won 3 of their last 3, scoring 84.7 and allowing 54.7 points a game over that stretch. Ohio State have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 85.3 and allowing 77.7 points a game over that stretch.

UConn sit 2nd in the Big East at 3–0, while Ohio State sit 15th in the Big Ten at 2–1.

On adjusted efficiency, UConn rate +5.8 and Ohio State +1.1 points per game against an average side, a 4.8-point edge to UConn. Home court is worth about 13.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices UConn at 83% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, UConn -10.5 covers 60% of the time on our numbers, and the over 147.5 lands 53% against a projected 151 points.

UConn to win (86%). Projected score: 82–67.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)UConn91%83%86%1.17
Winner (incl. overtime)Ohio State9%17%14%6.96
Point spreadUConn -10.572%52%60%1.67
Point spreadOhio State +10.528%48%40%2.50
Total pointsOver 147.559%50%53%1.88
Total pointsUnder 147.541%50%47%2.14
1st half spreadUConn -7.549%–49%2.06
1st half spreadOhio State +7.551%–51%1.94
1st half total pointsOver 70.551%–51%1.95
1st half total pointsUnder 70.549%–49%2.05

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

UConnBefore tip-offOhio State
  • 3–0Season record2–1
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 3–0Last 10 games2–1
  • W3Current streakW2
  • 84.7Points per game85.3
  • 54.7Points allowed per game77.7
  • +30.0Average margin+7.6
  • 3 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • +5.8Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+1.1
  • +1.6AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.6
  • +4.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.6
  • +13.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
UConn0.00.0–0.0+19.343.3–24.00.00.0–0.0+10.641.3–30.7
Ohio State0.00.0–0.0+8.740.0–31.30.00.0–0.0−1.045.3–46.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

UConn

3–0

4–0, 2nd in Big East

Ohio State

2–1

2–2, 17th in Big Ten

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day