Northern Colorado vs South Dakota St. result

HomeNorthern Colorado2–2, 3rd in Big Sky AwaySouth Dakota St.4–0, 1st in Summit League

46–71Final

78%22%

Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed

Northern Colorado to win

Prediction updated Sat, Nov 14, 08:58 PM UTC

Predicted score: 80–70
Margin: +10
Result: 46–71

Our lines

Point spread

+10.5South Dakota St. to cover · 51%

Total points

149.5Under · 50% · projected 149.4

Fair odds

1.28Northern Colorado · South Dakota St. 4.53

Who will win Northern Colorado vs South Dakota St.?

The numbers side with Northern Colorado (78%) at home against South Dakota St., with 80–70 the most likely shape of the final score.

Northern Colorado have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 94.0 and allowing 68.7 points a game over that stretch. South Dakota St. have won 3 of their last 3, scoring 73.3 and allowing 61.3 points a game over that stretch.

Northern Colorado sit 2nd in the Big Sky at 2–1, while South Dakota St. sit 1st in the Summit League at 3–0.

On adjusted efficiency, Northern Colorado rate -1.2 and South Dakota St. +1.4 points per game against an average side, a 2.5-point edge to South Dakota St.. Home court is worth about 12.7 points in this competition.

Our own lines for this game: Northern Colorado -10.5 on the spread and 149.5 total points (149.4 projected).

Northern Colorado to win (78%). Projected score: 80–70.

Markets

Market	Selection	Model	Market	Final	Fair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)	Northern Colorado	78%	–	78%	1.28
Winner (incl. overtime)	South Dakota St.	22%	–	22%	4.53
Point spread	Northern Colorado -10.5	49%	–	49%	2.04
Point spread	South Dakota St. +10.5	51%	–	51%	1.96
Total points	Over 149.5	50%	–	50%	2.01
Total points	Under 149.5	50%	–	50%	1.99
1st half spread	Northern Colorado -5.5	48%	–	48%	2.08
1st half spread	South Dakota St. +5.5	52%	–	52%	1.93
1st half total points	Over 71.5	49%	–	49%	2.05
1st half total points	Under 71.5	51%	–	51%	1.95

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Northern ColoradoBefore tip-offSouth Dakota St.

2–1Season record3–0
2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–0
2–1Last 10 games3–0
W1Current streakW3
94.0Points per game73.3
68.7Points allowed per game61.3
+25.3Average margin+12.0
3 daysRest before this game2 days
1Games in the last 7 days1
−1.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+1.4
−0.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.2
−0.7DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.6
+12.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Northern Colorado	0.00.0–0.0	+13.342.0–28.7	0.00.0–0.0	+12.052.0–40.0
South Dakota St.	0.00.0–0.0	+12.040.0–28.0	0.00.0–0.0	0.033.3–33.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form