San Diego Toreros vs Chicago State result

HomeSan Diego Toreros3–1, 3rd in West Coast AwayChicago State2–3, 3rd in Northeast

87–67Final

86%14%

Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed

San Diego Toreros to win

Prediction updated Sat, Nov 14, 02:12 AM UTC

Predicted score: 82–68
Margin: +14
Result: 87–67

Our lines

Point spread

−13.5San Diego Toreros to cover · 51%

Total points

147.5Over · 56% · projected 153.2

Fair odds

1.16San Diego Toreros · Chicago State 7.23

Who will win San Diego Toreros vs Chicago State?

San Diego Toreros are the pick at home against Chicago State: an 86% win chance and a projected 82–68 score.

San Diego Toreros have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 83.3 and allowing 78.3 points a game over that stretch. Chicago State have won 2 of their last 4, scoring 68.3 and allowing 76.8 points a game over that stretch.

San Diego Toreros sit 6th in the West Coast at 2–1, while Chicago State sit 1st in the Northeast at 2–2.

On adjusted efficiency, San Diego Toreros rate -0.2 and Chicago State -0.5 points per game against an average side, a 0.4-point edge to San Diego Toreros. Home court is worth about 13.3 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices San Diego Toreros at 87% across 6 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, San Diego Toreros -13.5 covers 51% of the time on our numbers, and the over 147.5 lands 56% against a projected 153.2 points.

San Diego Toreros to win (86%). Projected score: 82–68.

Markets

Market	Selection	Model	Market	Final	Fair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)	San Diego Toreros	85%	87%	86%	1.16
Winner (incl. overtime)	Chicago State	15%	13%	14%	7.23
Point spread	San Diego Toreros -13.5	50%	51%	51%	1.97
Point spread	Chicago State +13.5	50%	49%	49%	2.03
Total points	Over 147.5	64%	50%	56%	1.79
Total points	Under 147.5	36%	50%	44%	2.27
1st half spread	San Diego Toreros -7.5	49%	–	49%	2.04
1st half spread	Chicago State +7.5	51%	–	51%	1.96
1st half total points	Over 71.5	49%	–	49%	2.03
1st half total points	Under 71.5	51%	–	51%	1.97

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

San Diego TorerosBefore tip-offChicago State

2–1Season record2–2
2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road2–1
2–1Last 10 games2–2
L1Current streakW1
83.3Points per game68.3
78.3Points allowed per game76.8
+5.0Average margin−8.5
2 daysRest before this game1 day
2Games in the last 7 days2
−0.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.6
+1.7AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−1.2
−1.9DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.7
+13.3Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
San Diego Toreros	0.00.0–0.0	+1.037.3–36.3	0.00.0–0.0	+2.041.3–39.3
Chicago State	0.00.0–0.0	−5.334.0–39.3	0.00.0–0.0	−3.234.3–37.5

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form