Basketora

Idaho vs Cal Poly result

HomeIdaho2–2, 2nd in Big SkyAwayCal Poly2–2, 8th in Big West
74–83Final
64%36%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick missed
Idaho to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
84–79
Margin
+5
Result
74–83

Our lines

Point spread
−1.5Idaho to cover · 65%
Total points
166.5Under · 57% · projected 157.5
Fair odds
1.57Idaho · Cal Poly 2.74

Who will win Idaho vs Cal Poly?

Our model makes Idaho 64% favourites at home against Cal Poly and projects a 84–79 final.

Idaho have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.7 points a game over that stretch. Cal Poly have won 1 of their last 3, scoring 77.7 and allowing 88.3 points a game over that stretch.

Idaho sit 3rd in the Big Sky at 2–1, while Cal Poly sit 11th in the Big West at 1–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Idaho rate +1.8 and Cal Poly -1.6 points per game against an average side, a 3.4-point edge to Idaho. Home court is worth about 13.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Idaho at 52% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Idaho -1.5 covers 65% of the time on our numbers, and the under 166.5 lands 57% against a projected 157.5 points.

Idaho to win (64%). Projected score: 84–79.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Idaho89%52%64%1.57
Winner (incl. overtime)Cal Poly11%48%36%2.74
Point spreadIdaho -1.587%49%65%1.55
Point spreadCal Poly +1.513%51%35%2.82
Total pointsOver 166.528%52%43%2.35
Total pointsUnder 166.572%48%57%1.74
1st half spreadIdaho -2.549%–49%2.03
1st half spreadCal Poly +2.551%–51%1.97
1st half total pointsOver 77.551%–51%1.94
1st half total pointsUnder 77.549%–49%2.06

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

IdahoBefore tip-offCal Poly
  • 2–1Season record1–2
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 2–1Last 10 games1–2
  • W1Current streakL2
  • 90.7Points per game77.7
  • 67.7Points allowed per game88.3
  • +23.0Average margin−10.6
  • 4 daysRest before this game1 day
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • +1.8Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.6
  • +1.7AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.4
  • +0.1DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−3.0
  • +13.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Idaho0.00.0–0.0+14.645.3–30.70.00.0–0.0+8.345.3–37.0
Cal Poly0.00.0–0.0−5.035.0–40.00.00.0–0.0−5.642.7–48.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Idaho

2–1

2–2, 2nd in Big Sky

Cal Poly

1–2

2–2, 8th in Big West

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day