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Tarleton vs Alcorn State result

HomeTarleton3–1, 3rd in United AthleticAwayAlcorn State0–4, 9th in Southwestern Athletic
73–69Final
90%10%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Tarleton to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
85–68
Margin
+17
Result
73–69

Our lines

Point spread
−14.5Tarleton to cover · 56%
Total points
151.5Over · 56% · projected 157.2
Fair odds
1.12Tarleton · Alcorn State 9.62

Who will win Tarleton vs Alcorn State?

Our model makes Tarleton 90% favourites at home against Alcorn State and projects a 85–68 final.

Tarleton have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 84.0 and allowing 71.0 points a game over that stretch. Alcorn State have won 0 of their last 3, scoring 66.0 and allowing 95.7 points a game over that stretch.

Tarleton sit 5th in the United Athletic at 2–1, while Alcorn State sit 9th in the Southwestern Athletic at 0–3.

On adjusted efficiency, Tarleton rate +0.8 and Alcorn State -5.4 points per game against an average side, a 6.1-point edge to Tarleton. Home court is worth about 13.5 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Tarleton at 88% across 6 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Tarleton -14.5 covers 56% of the time on our numbers, and the over 151.5 lands 56% against a projected 157.3 points.

Tarleton to win (90%). Projected score: 85–68.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Tarleton93%88%90%1.12
Winner (incl. overtime)Alcorn State7%12%10%9.62
Point spreadTarleton -14.565%49%56%1.80
Point spreadAlcorn State +14.535%51%44%2.25
Total pointsOver 151.564%50%56%1.79
Total pointsUnder 151.536%50%44%2.26
1st half spreadTarleton -8.550%–50%2.00
1st half spreadAlcorn State +8.550%–50%2.00
1st half total pointsOver 73.549%–49%2.05
1st half total pointsUnder 73.551%–51%1.95

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

TarletonBefore tip-offAlcorn State
  • 2–1Season record0–3
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 2–1Last 10 games0–3
  • W1Current streakL3
  • 84.0Points per game66.0
  • 71.0Points allowed per game95.7
  • +13.0Average margin−29.7
  • 2 daysRest before this game2 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days1
  • +0.8Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−5.4
  • +2.0AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−1.4
  • −1.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−4.0
  • +13.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Tarleton0.00.0–0.0+13.442.7–29.30.00.0–0.0+1.738.7–37.0
Alcorn State0.00.0–0.0−19.031.0–50.00.00.0–0.0−10.735.0–45.7

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Tarleton

2–1

3–1, 3rd in United Athletic

Alcorn State

0–3

0–4, 9th in Southwestern Athletic

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day