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Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks prediction

HomeMiami Heat3–2, 7th in Eastern ConferenceAwayDallas Mavericks1–3, 12th in Western Conference
Tip-off
61%39%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Miami Heat to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
118–114
Margin
+4

Who will win Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks?

Miami Heat are the pick at home against Dallas Mavericks: a 61% win chance and a projected 118–114 score.

Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 123.4 and allowing 127.6 points a game over that stretch. Dallas Mavericks have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 113.4 and allowing 122.8 points a game over that stretch.

Miami Heat sit 7th in the Eastern Conference at 3–2, while Dallas Mavericks sit 12th in the Western Conference at 1–3.

On adjusted efficiency, Miami Heat rate -2 and Dallas Mavericks -1.9 points per game against an average side, a 0.1-point edge to Dallas Mavericks. Home court is worth about 3.7 points in this competition.

Miami Heat to win (61%). Projected score: 118–114.

Tale of the tape

Miami HeatBefore tip-offDallas Mavericks
  • 0–1Season record0–1
  • 0–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 0–1Last 10 games0–1
  • L1Current streakL1
  • 106.0Points per game110.0
  • 131.0Points allowed per game128.0
  • −25.0Average margin−18.0
  • 1 dayRest before this game1 day
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • 34.0Rebounds per game33.0
  • 25.0Assists per game20.0
  • 8.0Three-pointers made per game11.0
  • 24.0Bench points per game46.0
  • −2.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.9
  • +0.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.3
  • −2.4DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.6
  • +3.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 1 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Miami Heat−2.032.0–34.0−8.027.0–35.0−8.022.0–30.0−7.025.0–32.0
Dallas Mavericks−6.026.0–32.0−26.012.0–38.0+8.038.0–30.0+6.034.0–28.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Giannis AntetokounmpoForward · Miami HeatVSC. FlaggDallas Mavericks

Leading scorers · averages over the last 1 games

  • 35.0Points32.0
  • 6.0Rebounds5.0
  • 1.0Assists2.0
  • 0.0Three-pointers made1.0
  • 29.8Minutes32.9

Team leaders

Miami HeatThis seasonDallas Mavericks

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (1 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Guards
Davion MitchellVSKyrie Irving
PTS
11.0·15.0
REB
0.0·4.0
AST
10.0·2.0
Guards
Klay ThompsonVSMax Christie
PTS
10.0·5.0
REB
1.0·3.0
AST
0.0·2.0
Forwards
Giannis AntetokounmpoVSP.J. Washington
PTS
35.0·10.0
REB
6.0·4.0
AST
1.0·2.0
Forwards
Andrew WigginsVSDaniel Gafford
PTS
11.0·2.0
REB
2.0·3.0
AST
1.0·1.0
Cross-matchup
Bam AdebayoVSC. Flagg
PTS
15.0·32.0
REB
7.0·5.0
AST
4.0·2.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Miami Heat

Likely starting five

  1. Davion Mitchell
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    11.0
  2. Bam Adebayo
    Center · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    15.0
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    35.0
  4. Andrew Wiggins
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    11.0
  5. Klay Thompson
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    10.0
Away
Dallas Mavericks

Likely starting five

  1. C. Flagg
    Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    32.0
  2. P.J. Washington
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    10.0
  3. Max Christie
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    5.0
  4. Kyrie Irving
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    15.0
  5. Daniel Gafford
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    2.0
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (9)

C. Flagg: Hameltion, CC0; Zaccharie Risacher: Yoann210, CC BY 4.0; Naji Marshall: FOX Sports, CC BY 3.0; Marcus Sasser: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0; R. Conwell: Governor Eric Holcomb, Public domain; Max Christie: AlexanderJonesi, CC BY-SA 2.0; Kyrie Irving: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0; Daniel Gafford: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0; Sergio De Larrea: Deriman Arca, CC0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Miami Heat

2–3

3–2, 7th in Eastern Conference

Dallas Mavericks

1–4

1–3, 12th in Western Conference

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day