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Sam Houston St. vs Howard Payne result

HomeSam Houston St.2–2, 8th in Conference USAAwayHoward Payne
102–59Final
62%38%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Sam Houston St. to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
89–85
Margin
+4
Result
102–59

Our lines

Point spread
−3.5Sam Houston St. to cover · 51%
Total points
174.5Under · 51% · projected 174.0
Fair odds
1.61Sam Houston St. · Howard Payne 2.64

Who will win Sam Houston St. vs Howard Payne?

Sam Houston St. are the pick at home over Howard Payne with a 62% win probability and a projected 89–85 score.

Neither side arrives with any momentum, as both Sam Houston St. and Howard Payne have lost their only recent game. The hosts scored 74.0 points per game while allowing 96.0, and the visitors put up 66.0 while giving up 135.0. Those defensive numbers are ugly on both sides, but Howard Payne's are far worse, which is the main reason the model leans toward the home team.

The ratings and the projected score point the same way. An 89–85 forecast gives Sam Houston St. a narrow edge, and that fits with a 62% win probability rather than a comfortable one. Howard Payne's case rests on the fact that the margin is small: a four-point projected gap leaves room for the visitors to stay close, especially in a game where both defenses have been generous.

The market's view of the winner is modest rather than emphatic. Sam Houston St. are favoured at home, but a 62% chance is not a strong endorsement, and the projected score suggests a tight, high-scoring contest. With no head-to-head data to separate the teams, the pick comes down to the home side's slightly better scoring output and Howard Payne's much larger defensive leak.

In short, the numbers favour Sam Houston St. without making them a heavy favourite. Howard Payne's 135.0 points allowed stands out as the weakest figure on the sheet, and the model expects that to matter. The 89–85 projection reflects a close game rather than a blowout.

The projected 89–85 score puts Sam Houston St. four points clear, which sits just above the -3.5 spread and gives the home side a narrow cover in the model. The 174.5 total line is essentially matched by the 174 projected points, so the model sees the game landing right on the number rather than clearly over or under. Sam Houston St. carry a 62% win probability, and the spread and total are priced tightly around the projected result.

Sam Houston St. to win at 62%, with a projected score of 89–85.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Sam Houston St.62%–62%1.61
Winner (incl. overtime)Howard Payne38%–38%2.64
Point spreadSam Houston St. -3.551%–51%1.96
Point spreadHoward Payne +3.549%–49%2.04
Total pointsOver 174.549%–49%2.06
Total pointsUnder 174.551%–51%1.95

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Sam Houston St.Before tip-offHoward Payne
  • 0–1Season record0–1
  • 0–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 0–1Last 10 games0–1
  • L1Current streakL1
  • 74.0Points per game66.0
  • 96.0Points allowed per game135.0
  • −22.0Average margin−69.0
  • 3 daysRest before this game1 day
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Sam Houston St.0.00.0–0.0−11.029.0–40.00.00.0–0.0−11.045.0–56.0
Howard Payne0.00.0–0.0−34.030.0–64.00.00.0–0.0−35.036.0–71.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Sam Houston St.

0–1

2–2, 8th in Conference USA

Howard Payne

0–1

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day