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Perth vs Melbourne United prediction

HomePerth4–2, 3rd in AwayMelbourne United3–4, 7th in
Tip-off
49%51%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Melbourne United to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
93–94
Margin
+1

Who will win Perth vs Melbourne United?

Melbourne United are the pick on the road against Perth, with a 51% win probability and a projected 94–93 score.

Perth have the stronger recent record, winning four of their last five while scoring 93.6 and allowing 92.8 points a game over that stretch. Melbourne United have been less convincing, with two wins in their last five, and their scoring and conceding figures of 93.2 and 94.4 over the same period show a team that has been outscored slightly. The table reflects that gap: Perth sit 3rd at 4–2, while Melbourne United are 7th at 3–4.

Adjusted efficiency tells a different story. Perth rate -1 points per game against an average side, while Melbourne United rate +0.8, a 1.8-point edge to Melbourne United. Home court is worth about 2.7 points in this competition, which largely offsets that edge and explains why the model sees the game as close to a coin flip.

The market is aligned with the model. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Melbourne United are priced at 53% across 3 bookmakers, close to the 51% win chance in our predictions. The projected 94–93 score reflects how little separates these teams, and the lean toward Melbourne United is a narrow one rather than a strong call.

Melbourne United to win (51%). Projected score: 94–93.

Tale of the tape

PerthBefore tip-offMelbourne United
  • 4–2Season record3–4
  • 4–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road3–1
  • 4–2Last 10 games3–4
  • L1Current streakL1
  • 91.2Points per game92.4
  • 94.0Points allowed per game90.0
  • −2.8Average margin+2.4
  • 5 daysRest before this game4 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • 29.3Rebounds per game36.7
  • 19.7Assists per game21.7
  • 10.3Three-pointers made per game7.7
  • 13.3Bench points per game24.0
  • −1.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+0.8
  • −1.0AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−0.9
  • −0.1DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.7
  • +2.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Perth+0.324.0–23.7−3.720.0–23.7+1.224.5–23.3−0.622.7–23.3
Melbourne United−1.420.3–21.7−0.325.1–25.4+2.524.4–21.9+1.622.6–21.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Dylan WindlerPerthVSCole AnthonyMelbourne United

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 21.7Points22.0
  • 8.3Rebounds5.7
  • 4.3Assists5.3
  • 3.3Three-pointers made2.3
  • 32.0Minutes27.2

Team leaders

PerthThis seasonMelbourne United

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (3 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Dylan WindlerVSCole Anthony
PTS
21.7·22.0
REB
8.3·5.7
AST
4.3·5.3
Starters
E. PepperVSJosh Oduro
PTS
16.7·17.7
REB
2.3·6.3
AST
2.3·2.0
Starters
A. Dell'OrsoVSLuke Travers
PTS
15.0·17.3
REB
2.7·5.7
AST
1.7·3.0
Starters
Brandon KnightVSSam Waardenburg
PTS
10.0·9.7
REB
1.0·4.7
AST
6.0·2.3
Starters
A. BrandtVSMalith Machar
PTS
5.0·5.7
REB
4.3·1.0
AST
0.7·0.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Perth

Likely starting five

  1. Dylan Windler
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    21.7
  2. E. Pepper
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    16.7
  3. A. Dell'Orso
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    15.0
  4. A. Brandt
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.0
  5. Brandon Knight
    Started 1 of last 3
    PPG
    10.0
Missed the last game
Away
Melbourne United

Likely starting five

  1. Luke Travers
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    17.3
  2. Cole Anthony
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    22.0
  3. Josh Oduro
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    17.7
  4. Sam Waardenburg
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    9.7
  5. Malith Machar
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.7
Full lineups and bench
Photo credits (10)

Dylan Windler: Erik Drost on Flickr, CC BY 2.0; Cole Anthony: Keenan Hairston from Raleigh, CC BY-SA 2.0; Kristian Doolittle: Robert Duval Photography, CC BY-SA 2.0; Josh Oduro: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brandon Knight: Acdixon, CC0; Jesse Wagstaff: DaHuzyBru, CC BY-SA 4.0; Luke Travers: DaHuzyBru, CC BY-SA 4.0; Joe Ingles: Frenchieinportland, CC BY-SA 4.0; Fabijan Krslovic: DylanI00, CC BY-SA 4.0; Kyle Bowen: DaHuzyBru, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Perth

4–1

4–2, 3rd in

Melbourne United

2–3

3–4, 7th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day